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TAG Soccer NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · TAG Soccer (all teams)

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2nd
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+19 goal diff · 24–5
WWWWWlast 5
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 08:00 AM

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TAG Soccer NTX
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 2.60 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.3 against · 0.97 expected points)

Season so farTAG Soccer NTXFC Dallas Youth NTX
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-04-1-0
Points per game3.002.60
Goals for / game4.86.8
Goals against / game1.01.0
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WD W W W W
Biggest win8–0 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX12–1 at Sting Bold NTX
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.15+3.06
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42-1.51

Common opponents: Nido Dallas Blue NTX — we 8–0; they 7–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Dallas Youth NTX score 6.8/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth NTX concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 27%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Kernow Storm FC NTX sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Kernow Storm FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TAG Soccer NTX – FC Dallas Youth NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 2.50 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3
Win
3.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
2.50 PPG
4th▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 1 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 13%
  2. 2nd 41%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.70) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link TAG Soccer NTX to FC Dallas Youth NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 0–7 3–2 0–1 3–3 6–0 1–12 5–1 11–0 3–2 2–4 TAG Soccer NTX 2nd Nido Dallas Blue NTX 24th NTX Celtic FC NTX 9th Sting Brave NTX 16th Atletico Dallas You… 14th Dallas Texans NTX 11th Sting Bold NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth NTX 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 13th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +29
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
27%
2–3 0.97 2.66 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
7th · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.65 2.52 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
05:10 PM
DKSC NTX
21st · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.87 2.56 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
11:40 AM
Attack FC NTX
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.52 2.45 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX
22nd · 0-0-6 · GD -27
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 2.49 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.46 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:40 AM
Fever United FC NTX
15th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
5–1 2.77 2.49 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
Sting Bold NTX
19th · 1-0-4 · GD -23
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
6–1 2.88 2.52 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans NTX
11th · 2-2-1 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 2.50 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–1 1.56 2.43 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6600 403+37 183.00 WWWWW -1.40 +0.56 99% 1.4
2 TAG Soccer NTX 5500 245+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.42 -0.01 88% 2.8
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5410 345+29 132.60 WWWWD -1.51 +1.06 70% 3.8
4 Attack FC NTX 5410 224+18 132.60 WDWWW -0.17 +0.26 62% 4.3
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5401 2211+11 122.40 WWWWL -1.32 -0.10 20% 6.6
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5401 124+8 122.40 LWWWW +0.23 -0.30 36% 5.5
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 154+11 92.25 WLWW -2.14 +0.61 7% 8.7
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5311 1811+7 102.00 LDWWW -0.33 +0.09 7% 8.4
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5302 114+7 91.80 WWLLW -0.23 +0.08 6% 8.6
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5221 88+0 81.60 DDWWL +0.94 -0.40 1% 11.0
11 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 79-2 81.60 LWWDD +0.66 +0.31 0% 14.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 4202 117+4 61.50 WLLW +0.11 -0.09 2% 11.2
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5212 85+3 71.40 DLLWW -0.38 +0.75 0% 13.4
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5203 1116-5 61.20 WWLLL +0.37 -0.49 0% 14.0
15 Fever United FC NTX 5203 1017-7 61.20 LWLLW -0.40 +0.70 0% 18.3
16 Sting Brave NTX 6204 229+13 61.00 LWLLW -0.67 -0.15 1% 10.4
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4112 1210+2 41.00 LLDW -0.54 +0.47 0% 15.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 617-11 40.80 WLDLL -0.20 -0.46 0% 18.4
19 Sting Bold NTX 5104 629-23 30.60 LLWLL +1.11 -0.68 0% 19.5
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6033 1015-5 30.50 LLDDL +0.80 -1.29 0% 15.4
21 DKSC NTX 4013 318-15 10.25 LLDL +1.81 +0.02 0% 20.7
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6006 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.93 +0.16 0% 22.7
23 Sting NTX 5005 440-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.80 0% 22.7
24 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 5005 139-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.57 -0.77 0% 23.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.