TableChase Clubs

Kernow Storm FC NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · Kernow Storm FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
Add schedule to calendar
1st
6-0-0 record · 6 played
3.00 points per game
+37 goal diff · 40–3
WWWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-1.40 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:30 PM

Open the match preview →

Kernow Storm FC NTX
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
Attack FC NTX
4th · 2.60 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.8 against · 2.12 expected points)

Season so farKernow Storm FC NTXAttack FC NTX
Position1st4th
Record (W-D-L)6-0-04-1-0
Points per game3.002.60
Goals for / game6.74.4
Goals against / game0.50.8
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W W D W
Biggest win13–1 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX6–0 vs SOLAR RED NTX
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.58+2.12
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.40-0.17

Common opponents: Nido Dallas White NTX — we 3–0; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Attack FC NTX score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Attack FC NTX concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 66% / draw 15% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Attack FC NTX have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Attack FC NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kernow Storm FC NTX – Attack FC NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.71 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.57 PPG
4th▼ down 3 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

75% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 75%
  2. 2nd 18%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Kernow Storm FC NTX to Attack FC NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 2–2 9–0 3–6 1–7 1–6 1–5 5–1 4–1 6–0 1–4 0–2 13–1 2–5 0–6 1–1 2–4 Kernow Storm FC NTX 1st Nido Dallas White N… 20th Sting NTX 23rd Dallas Texans Red N… 10th DKSC NTX 21st FC Dallas Youth Nav… 22nd Fever United FC NTX 15th Atletico Dallas You… 5th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 6th SOLAR RED NTX 18th Attack FC NTX 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.56 · 5th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
Attack FC NTX
4th · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.12 2.87 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
05:10 PM
SOLAR RED NTX
18th · 1-1-3 · GD -11
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–0 2.90 2.88 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +29
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
3–2 1.64 2.74 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 2.72 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
01:30 PM
SOLAR BLUE NTX
17th · 1-1-2 · GD +2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.78 2.73 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
08:00 AM
Dallas Texans NTX
11th · 2-2-1 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.60 2.72 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Red NTX
8th · 3-1-1 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.49 2.70 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
01:30 PM
Fever United FC NTX
15th · 2-0-3 · GD -7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.86 2.71 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
07:00 PM
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +11
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.50 2.70 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6600 403+37 183.00 WWWWW -1.40 +0.56 99% 1.4
2 TAG Soccer NTX 5500 245+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.42 -0.01 89% 2.8
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5410 345+29 132.60 WWWWD -1.51 +1.06 71% 3.8
4 Attack FC NTX 5410 224+18 132.60 WDWWW -0.17 +0.26 64% 4.2
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5401 2211+11 122.40 WWWWL -1.32 -0.10 19% 6.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5401 124+8 122.40 LWWWW +0.23 -0.30 34% 5.5
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 154+11 92.25 WLWW -2.14 +0.61 8% 8.5
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5311 1811+7 102.00 LDWWW -0.33 +0.09 6% 8.4
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5302 114+7 91.80 WWLLW -0.23 +0.08 7% 8.7
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5221 88+0 81.60 DDWWL +0.94 -0.40 1% 10.9
11 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 79-2 81.60 LWWDD +0.66 +0.31 0% 14.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 4202 117+4 61.50 WLLW +0.11 -0.09 1% 11.3
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5212 85+3 71.40 DLLWW -0.38 +0.75 0% 13.4
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5203 1116-5 61.20 WWLLL +0.37 -0.49 0% 14.0
15 Fever United FC NTX 5203 1017-7 61.20 LWLLW -0.40 +0.70 0% 18.4
16 Sting Brave NTX 6204 229+13 61.00 LWLLW -0.67 -0.15 1% 10.3
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4112 1210+2 41.00 LLDW -0.54 +0.47 0% 15.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 617-11 40.80 WLDLL -0.20 -0.46 0% 18.4
19 Sting Bold NTX 5104 629-23 30.60 LLWLL +1.11 -0.68 0% 19.5
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6033 1015-5 30.50 LLDDL +0.80 -1.29 0% 15.3
21 DKSC NTX 4013 318-15 10.25 LLDL +1.81 +0.02 0% 20.7
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6006 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.93 +0.16 0% 22.7
23 Sting NTX 5005 440-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.80 0% 22.6
24 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 5005 139-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.57 -0.77 0% 23.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.