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FC Dallas Youth NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · FC Dallas Youth (all teams)

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3rd
4-1-0 record · 5 played
2.60 points per game
+29 goal diff · 34–5
WWWWDlast 5
71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8
-1.51 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:50 AM

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FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 2.60 PPG
vs

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.6 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farFC Dallas Youth NTXFC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position3rd6th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-04-0-1
Points per game2.602.40
Goals for / game6.82.4
Goals against / game1.00.8
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)D W W W WW W W W L
Biggest win12–1 at Sting Bold NTX5–1 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Worst loss—0–2 at Attack FC NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.06+1.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.51+0.23

Common opponents: DKSC NTX — we 7–1; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dallas Youth NTX – FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.67 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.67 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3
Loss
2.17 PPG
7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st
71% top 4
29% below the top 4
3.8 average finish
  1. 1st 7%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.87 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 3.00 (+0.40) 1st (2.70) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2 TAG Soccer NTX 3.00 (+0.40) 2nd (2.43) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

6 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dallas Youth NTX to FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
3 favour them
+0.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–1 1–4 3–3 1–0 0–2 7–0 1–5 1–1 0–11 0–1 12–1 4–2 1–5 FC Dallas Youth NTX 3rd DKSC NTX 21st Dallas Texans NTX 11th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 24th Sting Bold NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 13th Sting Brave NTX 16th Atletico Dallas You… 14th FC Dallas Youth Blu… 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

6 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.06 · 1st hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
6th · 4-0-1 · GD +8
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.11 2.52 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
TAG Soccer NTX
2nd · 5-0-0 · GD +19
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 2.42 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM
Sting Brave NTX
16th · 2-0-4 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.94 2.36 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
11:40 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +37
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.19 2.23 Upside
Sat Feb 20
01:30 PM
DKSC WHITE NTX
12th · 2-0-2 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.24 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
08:00 AM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
7th · 3-0-1 · GD +11
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.24 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:40 AM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
10th · 2-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.55 2.26 Bank it
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 2.26 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
9th · 3-0-2 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.92 2.23 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
14th · 2-0-3 · GD -5
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
5–1 2.67 2.26 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6600 403+37 183.00 WWWWW -1.40 +0.56 99% 1.4
2 TAG Soccer NTX 5500 245+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.42 -0.01 89% 2.8
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5410 345+29 132.60 WWWWD -1.51 +1.06 71% 3.8
4 Attack FC NTX 5410 224+18 132.60 WDWWW -0.17 +0.26 64% 4.2
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5401 2211+11 122.40 WWWWL -1.32 -0.10 19% 6.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5401 124+8 122.40 LWWWW +0.23 -0.30 34% 5.5
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 154+11 92.25 WLWW -2.14 +0.61 8% 8.5
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5311 1811+7 102.00 LDWWW -0.33 +0.09 6% 8.4
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5302 114+7 91.80 WWLLW -0.23 +0.08 7% 8.7
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5221 88+0 81.60 DDWWL +0.94 -0.40 1% 10.9
11 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 79-2 81.60 LWWDD +0.66 +0.31 0% 14.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 4202 117+4 61.50 WLLW +0.11 -0.09 1% 11.3
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5212 85+3 71.40 DLLWW -0.38 +0.75 0% 13.4
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5203 1116-5 61.20 WWLLL +0.37 -0.49 0% 14.0
15 Fever United FC NTX 5203 1017-7 61.20 LWLLW -0.40 +0.70 0% 18.4
16 Sting Brave NTX 6204 229+13 61.00 LWLLW -0.67 -0.15 1% 10.3
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4112 1210+2 41.00 LLDW -0.54 +0.47 0% 15.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 617-11 40.80 WLDLL -0.20 -0.46 0% 18.4
19 Sting Bold NTX 5104 629-23 30.60 LLWLL +1.11 -0.68 0% 19.5
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6033 1015-5 30.50 LLDDL +0.80 -1.29 0% 15.3
21 DKSC NTX 4013 318-15 10.25 LLDL +1.81 +0.02 0% 20.7
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6006 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.93 +0.16 0% 22.7
23 Sting NTX 5005 440-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.80 0% 22.6
24 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 5005 139-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.57 -0.77 0% 23.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.