SOLAR RED NTX
ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · Solar SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.5 for, 4.2 against · 0.33 expected points)
| Season so far | SOLAR RED NTX | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 18th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-3 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 1.2 | 4.4 |
| Goals against / game | 3.4 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L L D L W | L W W W W |
| Biggest win | 5–2 at FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 7–1 vs Sting Bold NTX |
| Worst loss | 0–7 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 1–5 at Attack FC NTX |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.42 | +0.85 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.20 | -1.32 |
Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX — we 5–2; they 4–2. Attack FC NTX — we 0–6; they 1–5.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.6.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Attack FC NTX, 0–7 vs FC Dallas Youth Red NTX, 0–1 vs Fever United FC NTX.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 8%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 01:30 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
SOLAR BLUE NTX sit 17th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.80.A point moves us above SOLAR BLUE NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Atletico Dallas Youth NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR RED NTX – Atletico Dallas Youth NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.67 PPG |
18th— holds | 20th▼ down 2 | 21st▼ down 3 |
| Win 1.17 PPG |
16th▲ up 2 | 16th▲ up 2 | 18th— holds |
| Draw 0.83 PPG |
18th— holds | 20th▼ down 2 | 21st▼ down 3 |
| Loss 0.67 PPG |
18th— holds | 20th▼ down 2 | 21st▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 18th even if every rival loses, and as low as 21st if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th <1%
- 11th <1%
- 12th <1%
- 13th 1%
- 14th 2%
- 15th 3%
- 16th 6%
- 17th 12%
- 18th 23%
- 19th 25%
- 20th 19%
- 21st 7%
- 22nd 2%
- 23rd <1%
- 24th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.27 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 3.00 (+2.20) | 1st (2.70) | 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | TAG Soccer NTX | 3.00 (+2.20) | 2nd (2.43) | 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 2.60 (+1.80) | 3rd (2.26) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Attack FC NTX | 2.60 (+1.80) | 4th (2.23) | 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 5 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 2.40 (+1.60) | 6th (1.97) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 2.40 (+1.60) | 5th (2.10) | 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 2.25 (+1.45) | 8th (1.80) | 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 8 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 2.00 (+1.20) | 7th (1.81) | 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection |
| 9 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 1.80 (+1.00) | 9th (1.79) | 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 10 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 1.60 (+0.80) | 10th (1.62) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 11 | Dallas Texans NTX | 1.60 (+0.80) | 14th (1.36) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 12 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 1.50 (+0.70) | 12th (1.57) | 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection |
| 13 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 1.40 (+0.60) | 13th (1.39) | 17 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 14 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 1.20 (+0.40) | 15th (1.35) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
| 15 | Fever United FC NTX | 1.20 (+0.40) | 18th (0.91) | 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection |
| 16 | Sting Brave NTX | 1.00 (+0.20) | 11th (1.61) | A point next game |
| 17 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 1.00 (+0.20) | 17th (1.20) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link SOLAR RED NTX to Atletico Dallas Youth NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.46 · 19th hardest of 24
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:30 PM |
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5th · 4-0-1 · GD +11 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 8% |
1–4 | 0.33 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:30 PM |
DKSC WHITE NTX 12th · 2-0-2 · GD +4 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.64 | 0.71 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 05:10 PM |
Kernow Storm FC NTX 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +37 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.07 | 0.63 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 11:40 AM |
Sting Brave NTX 16th · 2-0-4 · GD +13 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.25 | 0.59 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 01:30 PM |
Sting Bold NTX 19th · 1-0-4 · GD -23 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.87 | 0.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 27 08:00 AM |
Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 14th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.75 | 0.72 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 03:20 PM |
SOLAR BLUE NTX 17th · 1-1-2 · GD +2 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 0.70 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:30 PM |
Sting NTX 23rd · 0-0-5 · GD -36 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.13 | 0.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 07:00 PM |
Dallas Texans Red NTX 10th · 2-2-1 · GD +0 |
Away Dallas Soccer Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–2 | 0.60 | 0.80 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 07:00 PM |
Nido Dallas Blue NTX 24th · 0-0-5 · GD -38 |
Home Dallas Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
3–1 | 2.49 | 0.91 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Kernow Storm FC NTX | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | +37 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.40 | +0.56 | 99% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Attack FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | TAG Soccer NTX | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 5 | +19 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.42 | -0.01 | 89% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 8 vs DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | FC Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 5 | +29 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWWD | -1.51 | +1.06 | 70% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs TAG Soccer NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting Brave NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Attack FC NTX | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | +18 | 13 | 2.60 | WDWWW | -0.17 | +0.26 | 63% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Kernow Storm FC NTX · Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR BLUE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Atletico Dallas Youth NTX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -1.32 | -0.10 | 20% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Fever United FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | +0.23 | -0.30 | 34% | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sun Nov 1 at Sting Bold NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | SOLAR WHITE NTX | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 9 | 2.25 | WLWW | -2.14 | +0.61 | 8% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs TAG Soccer NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Dallas Youth Red NTX | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 10 | 2.00 | LDWWW | -0.33 | +0.09 | 7% | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Fever United FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC WHITE NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | NTX Celtic FC NTX | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 9 | 1.80 | WWLLW | -0.23 | +0.08 | 5% | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Dallas Texans Red NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.60 | DDWWL | +0.94 | -0.40 | 1% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Dallas Texans NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Dallas Texans NTX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 | 1.60 | LWWDD | +0.66 | +0.31 | 0% | 14.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SOLAR WHITE NTX · Sat Oct 31 at Sting Bold NTX · Sat Feb 6 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | DKSC WHITE NTX | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 6 | 1.50 | WLLW | +0.11 | -0.09 | 1% | 11.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Attack FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR RED NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | FC Dallas Youth White NTX | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 1.40 | DLLWW | -0.38 | +0.75 | 0% | 13.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | WWLLL | +0.37 | -0.49 | 0% | 14.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Brave NTX · Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sat Nov 7 at NTX Celtic FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Fever United FC NTX | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 6 | 1.20 | LWLLW | -0.40 | +0.70 | 0% | 18.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth Red NTX · Sun Oct 25 vs Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Atletico Dallas Youth NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Sting Brave NTX | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 6 | 1.00 | LWLLW | -0.67 | -0.15 | 1% | 10.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | SOLAR BLUE NTX | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | -0.54 | +0.47 | 0% | 15.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Attack FC NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 18 | SOLAR RED NTX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 | 0.80 | WLDLL | -0.20 | -0.46 | 0% | 18.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC WHITE NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs Kernow Storm FC NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 19 | Sting Bold NTX | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 29 | -23 | 3 | 0.60 | LLWLL | +1.11 | -0.68 | 0% | 19.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans NTX · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 20 | Nido Dallas White NTX | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 3 | 0.50 | LLDDL | +0.80 | -1.29 | 0% | 15.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting NTX · Sun Oct 25 at Fever United FC NTX · Sat Feb 6 at Nido Dallas Blue NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 21 | DKSC NTX | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.25 | LLDL | +1.81 | +0.02 | 0% | 20.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Sting Brave NTX · Sat Nov 7 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX · Sun Nov 8 at TAG Soccer NTX See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 22 | FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 34 | -27 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.93 | +0.16 | 0% | 22.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR BLUE NTX · Sat Nov 7 at Sting NTX · Sat Feb 6 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 23 | Sting NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 40 | -36 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.03 | -0.80 | 0% | 22.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Nido Dallas White NTX · Sat Oct 31 vs Dallas Texans Red NTX · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 24 | Nido Dallas Blue NTX | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 39 | -38 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.57 | -0.77 | 0% | 23.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Bold NTX · Sun Oct 25 at NTX Celtic FC NTX · Sat Feb 6 vs Nido Dallas White NTX See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.