TableChase Clubs

Sting Brave NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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16th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 22–9
LWLLWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.3
-0.67 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:50 AM

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Sting Brave NTX
16th · 1.00 PPG
at
Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
14th · 1.20 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.9 against · 2.14 expected points)

Season so farSting Brave NTXAtletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Position16th14th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-42-0-3
Points per game1.001.20
Goals for / game3.72.2
Goals against / game1.53.2
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)W L L W LL L L W W
Biggest win11–0 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX3–2 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX
Worst loss1–5 at TAG Soccer NTX1–5 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.28-0.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.67+0.37

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 0–1; they 1–5. TAG Soccer NTX — we 1–5; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX, 0–2 vs FC Dallas Youth White NTX, 0–1 vs NTX Celtic FC NTX.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 66% / draw 15% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX have lost 3 straight (form: WWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:50 AM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Fever United FC NTX sit 15th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Fever United FC NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Brave NTX – Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.29 PPG		 14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Win
1.29 PPG		 14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 19th▼ down 3
Loss
0.86 PPG		 17th▼ down 1 19th▼ down 3 20th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 16th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
10.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 8%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 13%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 6%
  15. 15th 4%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th 2%
  18. 18th <1%
  19. 19th <1%
  20. 20th <1%
  21. 21st
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.70) 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 TAG Soccer NTX 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.43) 39 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 2.60 (+1.60) 3rd (2.26) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Attack FC NTX 2.60 (+1.60) 4th (2.23) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.40 (+1.40) 6th (1.97) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.40 (+1.40) 5th (2.10) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.25 (+1.25) 8th (1.80) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.81) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.80 (+0.80) 9th (1.79) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.60 (+0.60) 10th (1.62) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Dallas Texans NTX 1.60 (+0.60) 14th (1.36) 18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 1.50 (+0.50) 12th (1.57) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 1.40 (+0.40) 13th (1.39) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 1.20 (+0.20) 15th (1.35) A point next game
15 Fever United FC NTX 1.20 (+0.20) 18th (0.91) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Brave NTX to Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 3–2 0–1 5–1 0–2 0–2 0–1 2–3 11–0 0–8 2–3 0–8 6–0 4–2 Sting Brave NTX 16th TAG Soccer NTX 2nd FC Dallas Youth Blu… 6th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 13th NTX Celtic FC NTX 9th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 24th SOLAR WHITE NTX 7th Sting Bold NTX 19th Atletico Dallas You… 14th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.15 · 16th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:50 AM		 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
14th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.14 1.16 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM		 DKSC NTX
21st · 0-1-3 · GD -15		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–1 2.72 1.36 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM		 FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +29		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
25%		 2–3 0.90 1.31 Upside
Sat Feb 6
11:40 AM		 SOLAR RED NTX
18th · 1-1-3 · GD -11		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.67 1.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
11:40 AM		 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 3–2 1.87 1.48 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM		 SOLAR WHITE NTX
7th · 3-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.26 1.46 Upside
Sun Mar 7
08:00 AM		 Nido Dallas White NTX
20th · 0-3-3 · GD -5		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.04 1.51 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM		 Sting Bold NTX
19th · 1-0-4 · GD -23		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 5–1 2.74 1.60 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM		 Dallas Texans NTX
11th · 2-2-1 · GD -2		 Away
Dallas Soccer Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.86 1.61 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6600 403+37 183.00 WWWWW -1.40 +0.56 99% 1.4
2 TAG Soccer NTX 5500 245+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.42 -0.01 89% 2.8
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5410 345+29 132.60 WWWWD -1.51 +1.06 71% 3.8
4 Attack FC NTX 5410 224+18 132.60 WDWWW -0.17 +0.26 64% 4.2
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5401 2211+11 122.40 WWWWL -1.32 -0.10 19% 6.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5401 124+8 122.40 LWWWW +0.23 -0.30 34% 5.5
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 154+11 92.25 WLWW -2.14 +0.61 8% 8.5
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5311 1811+7 102.00 LDWWW -0.33 +0.09 6% 8.4
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5302 114+7 91.80 WWLLW -0.23 +0.08 7% 8.7
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5221 88+0 81.60 DDWWL +0.94 -0.40 1% 10.9
11 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 79-2 81.60 LWWDD +0.66 +0.31 0% 14.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 4202 117+4 61.50 WLLW +0.11 -0.09 1% 11.3
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5212 85+3 71.40 DLLWW -0.38 +0.75 0% 13.4
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5203 1116-5 61.20 WWLLL +0.37 -0.49 0% 14.0
15 Fever United FC NTX 5203 1017-7 61.20 LWLLW -0.40 +0.70 0% 18.4
16 Sting Brave NTX 6204 229+13 61.00 LWLLW -0.67 -0.15 1% 10.3
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4112 1210+2 41.00 LLDW -0.54 +0.47 0% 15.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 617-11 40.80 WLDLL -0.20 -0.46 0% 18.4
19 Sting Bold NTX 5104 629-23 30.60 LLWLL +1.11 -0.68 0% 19.5
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6033 1015-5 30.50 LLDDL +0.80 -1.29 0% 15.3
21 DKSC NTX 4013 318-15 10.25 LLDL +1.81 +0.02 0% 20.7
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6006 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.93 +0.16 0% 22.7
23 Sting NTX 5005 440-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.80 0% 22.6
24 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 5005 139-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.57 -0.77 0% 23.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.