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Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX

ECNL Regional League Boys · North Texas BU13 · 24 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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14th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-5 goal diff · 11–16
WWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 14.0
+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:50 AM

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Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX
14th · 1.20 PPG
vs
Sting Brave NTX
16th · 1.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 4 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.9 for, 3.4 against · 0.71 expected points)

Season so farAtletico Dallas Youth Blue NTXSting Brave NTX
Position14th16th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-32-0-4
Points per game1.201.00
Goals for / game2.23.7
Goals against / game3.21.5
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)L L L W WW L L W L
Biggest win3–2 vs SOLAR WHITE NTX11–0 vs Nido Dallas Blue NTX
Worst loss1–5 at FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX1–5 at TAG Soccer NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.50+1.28
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.37-0.67

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX — we 1–5; they 0–1. TAG Soccer NTX — we 2–3; they 1–5.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sting Brave NTX score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:50 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    FC Dallas Youth White NTX sit 13th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above FC Dallas Youth White NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 11 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
17th▼ down 3 16th▼ down 2 19th▼ down 5
Win
1.50 PPG
13th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 4 15th▼ down 1
Draw
1.17 PPG
15th▼ down 1 15th▼ down 1 16th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
17th▼ down 3 16th▼ down 2 19th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we fall to at least 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 19th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
14.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 4%
  11. 11th 7%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 13%
  14. 14th 13%
  15. 15th 14%
  16. 16th 14%
  17. 17th 10%
  18. 18th 5%
  19. 19th 3%
  20. 20th 1%
  21. 21st <1%
  22. 22nd
  23. 23rd
  24. 24th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.40 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.70) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 TAG Soccer NTX 3.00 (+1.80) 2nd (2.43) 39 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 2.60 (+1.40) 3rd (2.26) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Attack FC NTX 2.60 (+1.40) 4th (2.23) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 2.40 (+1.20) 6th (1.97) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.40 (+1.20) 5th (2.10) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 2.25 (+1.05) 8th (1.80) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 2.00 (+0.80) 7th (1.81) 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 1.80 (+0.60) 9th (1.79) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 1.60 (+0.40) 10th (1.62) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Dallas Texans NTX 1.60 (+0.40) 14th (1.36) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 1.50 (+0.30) 12th (1.57) Win next game
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 1.40 (+0.20) 13th (1.39) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX to Sting Brave NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 5–1 1–5 1–0 2–0 2–0 3–2 1–0 3–2 8–0 0–11 8–0 2–4 0–6 Atletico Dallas You… 14th TAG Soccer NTX 2nd FC Dallas Youth Blu… 6th SOLAR WHITE NTX 7th Sting Bold NTX 19th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 13th NTX Celtic FC NTX 9th Nido Dallas Blue NTX 24th Sting Brave NTX 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

1st 12th 24th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.49 · 20th hardest of 24

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:50 AM
Sting Brave NTX
16th · 2-0-4 · GD +13
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.71 1.12 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
FC Dallas Youth White NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD +3
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.83 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:40 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
9th · 3-0-2 · GD +7
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.02 Upside
Sat Feb 6
08:00 AM
Atletico Dallas Youth NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +11
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.93 1.01 Upside
Sat Feb 20
09:50 AM
Sting NTX
23rd · 0-0-5 · GD -36
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
5–1 2.61 1.17 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans NTX
11th · 2-2-1 · GD -2
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.35 1.19 Upside
Sat Feb 27
08:00 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
18th · 1-1-3 · GD -11
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–1 2.09 1.26 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
Nido Dallas Blue NTX
24th · 0-0-5 · GD -38
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 1.37 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
08:00 AM
DKSC NTX
21st · 0-1-3 · GD -15
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.17 1.43 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +29
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–5 0.26 1.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Kernow Storm FC NTX 6600 403+37 183.00 WWWWW -1.40 +0.56 99% 1.3
2 TAG Soccer NTX 5500 245+19 153.00 WWWWW -0.42 -0.01 88% 2.8
3 FC Dallas Youth NTX 5410 345+29 132.60 WWWWD -1.51 +1.06 70% 3.8
4 Attack FC NTX 5410 224+18 132.60 WDWWW -0.17 +0.26 64% 4.2
5 Atletico Dallas Youth NTX 5401 2211+11 122.40 WWWWL -1.32 -0.10 19% 6.8
6 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5401 124+8 122.40 LWWWW +0.23 -0.30 35% 5.5
7 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 154+11 92.25 WLWW -2.14 +0.61 10% 8.4
8 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5311 1811+7 102.00 LDWWW -0.33 +0.09 6% 8.5
9 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5302 114+7 91.80 WWLLW -0.23 +0.08 6% 8.8
10 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5221 88+0 81.60 DDWWL +0.94 -0.40 1% 10.8
11 Dallas Texans NTX 5221 79-2 81.60 LWWDD +0.66 +0.31 0% 14.0
12 DKSC WHITE NTX 4202 117+4 61.50 WLLW +0.11 -0.09 2% 11.1
13 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5212 85+3 71.40 DLLWW -0.38 +0.75 0% 13.4
14 Atletico Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5203 1116-5 61.20 WWLLL +0.37 -0.49 0% 14.0
15 Fever United FC NTX 5203 1017-7 61.20 LWLLW -0.40 +0.70 0% 18.3
16 Sting Brave NTX 6204 229+13 61.00 LWLLW -0.67 -0.15 1% 10.4
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4112 1210+2 41.00 LLDW -0.54 +0.47 0% 15.4
18 SOLAR RED NTX 5113 617-11 40.80 WLDLL -0.20 -0.46 0% 18.4
19 Sting Bold NTX 5104 629-23 30.60 LLWLL +1.11 -0.68 0% 19.5
20 Nido Dallas White NTX 6033 1015-5 30.50 LLDDL +0.80 -1.29 0% 15.3
21 DKSC NTX 4013 318-15 10.25 LLDL +1.81 +0.02 0% 20.7
22 FC Dallas Youth Navy NTX 6006 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.93 +0.16 0% 22.8
23 Sting NTX 5005 440-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.03 -0.80 0% 22.6
24 Nido Dallas Blue NTX 5005 139-38 00.00 LLLLL +1.57 -0.77 0% 23.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.