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San Diego Surf

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
3-0-0 record · 3 played
3.00 points per game
+8 goal diff · 10–2
WWWlast 3
56% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.1
-1.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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San Diego Surf
5th · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
11th · 1.00 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.5 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfEagles SC
Position5th11th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game3.32.0
Goals against / game0.71.3
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W WL W L
Biggest win3–0 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ4–0 vs Pateadores Soccer Club
Worst loss—2–3 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.09+0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.12-0.29

Common opponents: Pateadores Soccer Club — we 4–1; they 4–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 51% / draw 21% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC Del Mar sit 4th on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Legends FC Del Mar on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
2.50 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
2.25 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

8% finish 1st
56% top 4
44% below the top 4
4.1 average finish
  1. 1st 8%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 15%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 23%
  6. 6th 12%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.29) Win next game
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.28) Win next game
3 Legends FC 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.30) Win next game
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+0.00) 4th (2.16) Win next game

How the results connect

3 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 0–4 3–1 1–5 3–2 3–0 2–0 1–0 San Diego Surf 5th Pateadores Soccer C… 15th Sporting California… 16th Utah Royals FC-AZ 7th Legends FC 3rd LAFC 10th Eagles SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 2.68 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.37 2.62 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
4th · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.39 2.42 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.79 2.47 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 2.44 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 2.31 Upside
Sun Mar 28
10:30 AM
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.06 2.18 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.38 2.11 Upside
Sat Apr 17
09:00 AM
SLAMMERS FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD +0
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.14 2.11 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
09:00 AM
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 2.09 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.10 Swing game
Sat May 8
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.83 2.08 Swing game
Sun May 23
09:00 AM
Blues
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.09 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 153+12 123.00 WWWW -0.83 +0.20 86% 2.7
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 142+12 123.00 WWWW -0.66 +0.26 84% 2.8
3 Legends FC 4400 133+10 123.00 WWWW -0.30 -0.01 86% 2.7
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.98 +0.13 69% 3.6
5 San Diego Surf 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -1.12 +0.19 56% 4.1
6 LV Heat Surf 5302 138+5 91.80 LWWLW +0.17 -0.11 13% 6.2
7 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 67-1 91.80 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 1% 8.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4202 77+0 61.50 WLWL +0.55 -0.16 3% 8.2
9 Blues 2101 23-1 31.50 WL -0.15 +0.06 0% 10.2
10 LAFC 4202 49-5 61.50 LWLW +0.23 -0.01 0% 11.0
11 Eagles SC 3102 64+2 31.00 LWL -0.29 +0.06 1% 9.2
12 Rebels SC 3102 36-3 31.00 LLW +0.03 +0.02 0% 12.0
13 Phoenix Rising FC 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.60 +0.26 0% 13.3
14 SLAMMERS FC 5104 99+0 30.60 LLWLL +0.24 -0.07 0% 10.8
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL +0.73 -0.10 0% 15.4
16 Sporting California USA 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.95 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 Arizona Arsenal 5005 221-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.32 +0.08 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.