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Beach Futbol Club

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · Beach Futbol Club (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+12 goal diff · 14–2
WWWWlast 4
84% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 09:00 AM

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Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Legends FC Del Mar
4th · 3.00 PPG

El Camino College, Athletic Field ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.8 for, 1.4 against · 1.64 expected points)

Season so farBeach Futbol ClubLegends FC Del Mar
Position2nd4th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-03-0-0
Points per game3.003.00
Goals for / game3.53.3
Goals against / game0.50.3
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW W W
Biggest win6–1 vs LAFC4–0 at Rebels SC
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.47+1.22
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.66-0.98

Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 4–1; they 4–0. SLAMMERS FC — we 1–0; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC Del Mar score 3.3/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC Del Mar concede only 0.3/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 23% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Legends FC Del Mar have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Slammers FC HB Koge sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Slammers FC HB Koge on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Del Mar game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Beach Futbol Club – Legends FC Del Mar) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.60 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

25% finish 1st
84% top 4
16% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 25%
  2. 2nd 22%
  3. 3rd 21%
  4. 4th 15%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.29) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Beach Futbol Club to Legends FC Del Mar through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
-1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–2 4–1 0–4 7–0 0–3 0–4 Beach Futbol Club 2nd SLAMMERS FC 14th Arizona Arsenal 17th Rebels SC 12th Legends FC Del Mar 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
09:00 AM
no score posted
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Home
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.63 2.73 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Legends FC Del Mar
4th · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Home
El Camino College
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.64 2.54 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:00 PM
Blues
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
OC Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–0 2.18 2.49 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Rebels SC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
2–0 2.52 2.50 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.21 2.46 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
5th · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.51 2.37 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.59 2.39 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.32 2.30 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.71 2.33 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.82 2.29 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–0 2.30 2.30 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–0 2.09 2.28 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 153+12 123.00 WWWW -0.83 +0.20 86% 2.7
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 142+12 123.00 WWWW -0.66 +0.26 84% 2.8
3 Legends FC 4400 133+10 123.00 WWWW -0.30 -0.01 86% 2.7
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.98 +0.13 69% 3.6
5 San Diego Surf 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -1.12 +0.19 56% 4.1
6 LV Heat Surf 5302 138+5 91.80 LWWLW +0.17 -0.11 13% 6.2
7 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 67-1 91.80 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 1% 8.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4202 77+0 61.50 WLWL +0.55 -0.16 3% 8.2
9 Blues 2101 23-1 31.50 WL -0.15 +0.06 0% 10.2
10 LAFC 4202 49-5 61.50 LWLW +0.23 -0.01 0% 11.0
11 Eagles SC 3102 64+2 31.00 LWL -0.29 +0.06 1% 9.2
12 Rebels SC 3102 36-3 31.00 LLW +0.03 +0.02 0% 12.0
13 Phoenix Rising FC 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.60 +0.26 0% 13.3
14 SLAMMERS FC 5104 99+0 30.60 LLWLL +0.24 -0.07 0% 10.8
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL +0.73 -0.10 0% 15.4
16 Sporting California USA 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.95 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 Arizona Arsenal 5005 221-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.32 +0.08 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.