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Legends FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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3rd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+10 goal diff · 13–3
WWWWlast 4
86% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.30 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Legends FC
3rd · 3.00 PPG
vs
Rebels SC
12th · 1.00 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 23 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.9 against · 2.46 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCRebels SC
Position3rd12th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-01-0-2
Points per game3.001.00
Goals for / game3.31.0
Goals against / game0.82.0
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WW L L
Biggest win5–1 vs Sporting California USA3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss—0–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.32-0.49
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.30+0.03

Game plan

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Beach Futbol Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
5th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

26% finish 1st
86% top 4
14% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 26%
  2. 2nd 23%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.29) Win next game
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.28) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–8 2–0 Legends FC 3rd Sporting California… 16th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Rebels SC 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
09:00 AM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
El Camino College
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.14 2.63 Upside
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Rebels SC
12th · 1-0-2 · GD -3
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.46 2.60 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
LAFC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–1 2.34 2.56 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.20 2.52 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 2.55 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.49 2.44 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
5th · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
1–1 1.40 2.35 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.53 2.36 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
4th · 3-0-0 · GD +9
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
1–1 1.54 2.30 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD +0
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.02 2.28 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
17th · 0-0-5 · GD -19
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.83 2.32 Bank it
Sun May 16
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 2.30 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 153+12 123.00 WWWW -0.83 +0.20 84% 2.8
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 142+12 123.00 WWWW -0.66 +0.26 83% 2.9
3 Legends FC 4400 133+10 123.00 WWWW -0.30 -0.01 86% 2.8
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.98 +0.13 70% 3.6
5 San Diego Surf 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -1.12 +0.19 57% 4.1
6 LV Heat Surf 5302 138+5 91.80 LWWLW +0.17 -0.11 14% 6.3
7 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 67-1 91.80 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 2% 8.7
8 LA Breakers FC 4202 77+0 61.50 WLWL +0.55 -0.16 3% 8.1
9 Blues 2101 23-1 31.50 WL -0.15 +0.06 0% 10.2
10 LAFC 4202 49-5 61.50 LWLW +0.23 -0.01 0% 11.0
11 Eagles SC 3102 64+2 31.00 LWL -0.29 +0.06 1% 9.2
12 Rebels SC 3102 36-3 31.00 LLW +0.03 +0.02 0% 11.9
13 Phoenix Rising FC 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.60 +0.26 0% 13.4
14 SLAMMERS FC 5104 99+0 30.60 LLWLL +0.24 -0.07 0% 10.9
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL +0.73 -0.10 0% 15.4
16 Sporting California USA 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.95 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 Arizona Arsenal 5005 221-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.32 +0.08 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.