TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU17 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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12th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-3 goal diff · 3–6
LLWlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Rebels SC
12th · 1.00 PPG
at
Legends FC
3rd · 3.00 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 23 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.8 against · 0.40 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCLegends FC
Position12th3rd
Record (W-D-L)1-0-24-0-0
Points per game1.003.00
Goals for / game1.03.3
Goals against / game2.00.8
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L LW W W W
Biggest win3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal5–1 vs Sporting California USA
Worst loss0–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.49+1.32
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.03-0.30

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC score 3.2/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Legends FC concede only 0.8/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Legends FC Del Mar, 0–2 vs Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 9%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Legends FC have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Silverlakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Eagles SC sit 11th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Eagles SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.75 PPG
13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Win
1.50 PPG
10th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 3 12th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.75 PPG
13th▼ down 1 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–2 loss we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 22%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th 2%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.29) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+2.00) 3rd (2.28) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 Legends FC 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.30) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3.00 (+2.00) 4th (2.16) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.00) 5th (2.09) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 LV Heat Surf 1.80 (+0.80) 6th (1.76) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
7 Utah Royals FC-AZ 1.80 (+0.80) 8th (1.45) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 LA Breakers FC 1.50 (+0.50) 7th (1.53) Win next game
9 Blues 1.50 (+0.50) 10th (1.28) Win next game
10 LAFC 1.50 (+0.50) 11th (1.20) Win next game
11 Eagles SC 1.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.38) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 8–1 1–5 Rebels SC 12th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Sporting California… 16th Legends FC 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Legends FC
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
9%
0–2 0.40 0.85 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
San Diego Surf
5th · 3-0-0 · GD +8
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
11%
0–2 0.48 0.78 Upside
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.35 0.71 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:45 PM
LAFC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.31 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.87 0.80 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Blues
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -1
Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.33 0.86 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LA Breakers FC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.14 0.89 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
14th · 1-0-4 · GD +0
Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 0.92 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
7th · 3-0-2 · GD -1
Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–1 1.03 0.93 Upside
Sun May 2
10:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
13th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away far trip
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 0.95 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Sporting California USA
16th · 0-0-4 · GD -14
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 1.01 Swing game
Sun May 9
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
15th · 0-0-4 · GD -12
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.80 1.06 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Eagles SC
11th · 1-0-2 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.06 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 153+12 123.00 WWWW -0.83 +0.20 85% 2.8
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 142+12 123.00 WWWW -0.66 +0.26 84% 2.8
3 Legends FC 4400 133+10 123.00 WWWW -0.30 -0.01 86% 2.8
4 Legends FC Del Mar 3300 101+9 93.00 WWW -0.98 +0.13 70% 3.6
5 San Diego Surf 3300 102+8 93.00 WWW -1.12 +0.19 58% 4.1
6 LV Heat Surf 5302 138+5 91.80 LWWLW +0.17 -0.11 12% 6.3
7 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 67-1 91.80 LWLWW +0.09 +0.10 1% 8.9
8 LA Breakers FC 4202 77+0 61.50 WLWL +0.55 -0.16 2% 8.2
9 Blues 2101 23-1 31.50 WL -0.15 +0.06 1% 10.3
10 LAFC 4202 49-5 61.50 LWLW +0.23 -0.01 0% 11.0
11 Eagles SC 3102 64+2 31.00 LWL -0.29 +0.06 1% 9.2
12 Rebels SC 3102 36-3 31.00 LLW +0.03 +0.02 0% 11.9
13 Phoenix Rising FC 4103 69-3 30.75 LLLW -0.60 +0.26 0% 13.3
14 SLAMMERS FC 5104 99+0 30.60 LLWLL +0.24 -0.07 0% 10.8
15 Pateadores Soccer Club 4004 214-12 00.00 LLLL +0.73 -0.10 0% 15.4
16 Sporting California USA 4004 418-14 00.00 LLLL +0.95 -0.29 0% 15.2
17 Arizona Arsenal 5005 221-19 00.00 LLLLL +0.32 +0.08 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.80 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.