TableChase Clubs

Folsom Lake Surf

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)

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2nd
5-1-0 record · 6 played
2.67 points per game
+17 goal diff · 22–5
WWWDWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.0
-0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Folsom Lake Surf
2nd · 2.67 PPG
vs
Placer United
1st · 3.00 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 13 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.8 against · 1.09 expected points)

Season so farFolsom Lake SurfPlacer United
Position2nd1st
Record (W-D-L)5-1-06-0-0
Points per game2.673.00
Goals for / game3.73.7
Goals against / game0.80.2
Clean sheets45
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W D W W WW W W W W
Biggest win5–0 vs El Camino FC Salinas8–0 at Santa Clara Sporting
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.73+2.15
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.33-0.45

Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 5–0; they 6–0. COSC — we 3–3; they 2–0. Santa Clara Sporting — we 5–0; they 8–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Placer United score 3.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Placer United concede only 0.2/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Placer United have won 6 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.43 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Win
2.71 PPG		 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1 1st▲ up 1
Draw
2.43 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.29 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
2.0 average finish
  1. 1st 20%
  2. 2nd 62%
  3. 3rd 14%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Placer United 3.00 (+0.33) 1st (2.65) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
5 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–0 0–6 3–3 0–2 5–0 0–8 4–1 0–2 3–2 0–0 1–2 0–1 3–0 2–2 0–1 2–3 1–3 3–0 Folsom Lake Surf 2nd El Camino FC Salinas 14th COSC 4th Santa Clara Sporting 15th Los Gatos United So… 13th Napa United 16th MVLA 12th 1974 Newark FC 9th San Juan SC 10th Placer United 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Placer United
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +21		 Home
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–1 1.09 2.44 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 MVLA
12th · 2-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 2–0 2.55 2.45 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
04:00 PM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -5		 Home
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 2.48 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 1974 Newark FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Away far trip
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.27 2.46 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
01:30 PM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–0 2.18 2.44 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
03:00 PM		 Association FC B10/11
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +4		 Away far trip
Witter Sports Complex · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.99 2.40 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.73 2.35 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 4–0 2.89 2.39 Bank it
Sun May 2
02:30 PM		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +7		 Home
Livermore Community Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.29 2.38 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 San Juan SC
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.49 2.39 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Placer United 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.45 +0.04 100% 1.2
2 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 225+17 162.67 WWWDW -0.33 +0.00 99% 2.0
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 7601 167+9 182.57 LWWWW -0.42 +0.25 80% 3.7
4 COSC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWDWW +0.39 -0.42 74% 4.0
5 River Islands Surf 7403 2013+7 121.71 WWLWW -0.28 +0.12 18% 6.2
6 Association FC B10/11 7403 139+4 121.71 WLWLL -0.22 +0.17 10% 7.1
7 Davis Legacy 6312 86+2 101.67 WLWDL +0.04 -0.05 10% 6.9
8 Mustang Soccer 7313 1513+2 101.43 WWLWL +0.10 -0.13 5% 7.9
9 1974 Newark FC 5212 68-2 71.40 LWWLD +0.09 -0.03 2% 9.8
10 San Juan SC 5203 712-5 61.20 WLLWL +0.08 -0.01 0% 11.5
11 Marin FC 6213 1318-5 71.17 LLLWW -0.29 +0.20 0% 11.9
12 MVLA 6213 49-5 71.17 WLWLL +0.13 -0.01 0% 12.1
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 129+3 71.00 LLLLW -0.07 -0.01 1% 9.5
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7214 617-11 71.00 WLDWL +0.57 -0.36 0% 12.6
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5104 518-13 30.60 WLLLL +0.47 -0.08 0% 15.1
16 Napa United 7115 818-10 40.57 LLWLD +0.12 -0.05 0% 14.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.12 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.