TableChase Clubs

COSC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · California Odyssey Soccer Club (all teams)

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4th
4-1-2 record · 7 played
1.86 points per game
+8 goal diff · 18–10
WWDWWlast 5
74% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0
+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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COSC
4th · 1.86 PPG
vs
Santa Rosa United
17th · 0.00 PPG

San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C, field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–0 (expected goals 4.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.85 expected points)

Season so farCOSCSanta Rosa United
Position4th17th
Record (W-D-L)4-1-20-0-7
Points per game1.860.00
Goals for / game2.60.4
Goals against / game1.43.6
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)W W D W WL L L L L
Biggest win5–0 at Marin FC—
Worst loss0–2 vs Placer United0–6 vs Mustang Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.95-2.13
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.39+0.12

Common opponents: Association FC B10/11 — we 2–0; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Santa Rosa United average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Santa Rosa United concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–6 vs Mustang Soccer.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 4–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Santa Rosa United have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Rosa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (COSC – Santa Rosa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.75 PPG		 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.63 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–0 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
74% top 4
26% below the top 4
4.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 35%
  4. 4th 33%
  5. 5th 14%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Placer United 3.00 (+1.14) 1st (2.65) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+0.81) 2nd (2.39) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.57 (+0.71) 3rd (2.06) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection

How the results connect

16 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link COSC to Santa Rosa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 4–1 0–2 1–0 1–0 2–1 2–1 4–1 2–0 2–0 3–3 3–0 3–2 5–1 5–0 0–4 3–2 1–2 6–0 1–0 4–1 0–1 COSC 4th Association FC B10/… 6th Placer United 1st Davis Legacy 7th Folsom Lake Surf 2nd Marin FC 11th 1974 Newark FC 9th River Islands Surf 5th Napa United 16th Los Gatos United So… 13th Mustang Soccer 8th Santa Rosa United 17th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.42 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -22		 Home
San Joaquin Memorial- 1406 N. Fresno St. Fresno, C		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.85 1.98 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +7		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.52 1.93 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Napa United
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.52 1.99 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
8th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.71 1.96 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD +3		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.61 1.93 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–0 2.50 1.98 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.90 1.97 Swing game
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13		 Home
Clovis Community College Soccer Field		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.70 2.02 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.30 1.98 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Placer United 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.45 +0.04 100% 1.2
2 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 225+17 162.67 WWWDW -0.33 +0.00 99% 2.0
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 7601 167+9 182.57 LWWWW -0.42 +0.25 80% 3.7
4 COSC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWDWW +0.39 -0.42 74% 4.0
5 River Islands Surf 7403 2013+7 121.71 WWLWW -0.28 +0.12 18% 6.2
6 Association FC B10/11 7403 139+4 121.71 WLWLL -0.22 +0.17 10% 7.1
7 Davis Legacy 6312 86+2 101.67 WLWDL +0.04 -0.05 10% 6.9
8 Mustang Soccer 7313 1513+2 101.43 WWLWL +0.10 -0.13 5% 7.9
9 1974 Newark FC 5212 68-2 71.40 LWWLD +0.09 -0.03 2% 9.8
10 San Juan SC 5203 712-5 61.20 WLLWL +0.08 -0.01 0% 11.5
11 Marin FC 6213 1318-5 71.17 LLLWW -0.29 +0.20 0% 11.9
12 MVLA 6213 49-5 71.17 WLWLL +0.13 -0.01 0% 12.1
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 129+3 71.00 LLLLW -0.07 -0.01 1% 9.5
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7214 617-11 71.00 WLDWL +0.57 -0.36 0% 12.6
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5104 518-13 30.60 WLLLL +0.47 -0.08 0% 15.1
16 Napa United 7115 818-10 40.57 LLWLD +0.12 -0.05 0% 14.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.12 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.