TableChase Clubs

San Juan SC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · San Juan Soccer Club (all teams)

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10th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-5 goal diff · 7–12
WLLWLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.5
+0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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San Juan SC
10th · 1.20 PPG
at
Davis Legacy
7th · 1.67 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.0 for, 1.9 against · 0.83 expected points)

Season so farSan Juan SCDavis Legacy
Position10th7th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-33-1-2
Points per game1.201.67
Goals for / game1.41.3
Goals against / game2.41.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W L L WL D W L W
Biggest win2–0 vs MVLA2–0 at Napa United
Worst loss0–3 at Santa Clara Sporting1–2 at Mustang Soccer
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.56+0.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.08+0.04

Common opponents: COSC — we 3–2; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Santa Clara Sporting.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 20%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    1974 Newark FC sit 9th on 1.40 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A point moves us above 1974 Newark FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan SC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.17 PPG		 11th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG		 7th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 3 9th▲ up 1
Draw
1.17 PPG		 11th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 4
Loss
1.00 PPG		 13th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 9%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Placer United 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.65) 42 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.47) 2nd (2.39) 37 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.57 (+1.37) 3rd (2.06) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 COSC 1.86 (+0.66) 4th (1.98) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 River Islands Surf 1.71 (+0.51) 5th (1.67) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Association FC B10/11 1.71 (+0.51) 7th (1.59) 22 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.67 (+0.47) 6th (1.61) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
8 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.23) 8th (1.50) A point next game
9 1974 Newark FC 1.40 (+0.20) 10th (1.30) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan SC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–2 2–1 2–0 1–4 0–0 0–1 1–3 2–0 1–4 4–4 2–1 1–0 1–1 2–3 6–0 0–5 0–4 San Juan SC 10th COSC 4th MVLA 12th Placer United 1st Marin FC 11th Los Gatos United So… 13th Mustang Soccer 8th El Camino FC Salinas 14th Davis Legacy 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 9th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–1 0.83 1.14 Upside
Sun Nov 1
11:00 AM		 Association FC B10/11
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +4		 Home
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–1 1.01 1.12 Upside
Sun Nov 8
02:00 PM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
University of San Francisco · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–2 0.57 1.05 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.19 1.18 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.87 1.15 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Napa United
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.74 1.20 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
8th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.82 1.17 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD +3		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.04 1.16 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
42%		 1–1 1.49 1.18 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Folsom Lake Surf
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 1.13 Upside
Sat May 15
03:00 PM		 1974 Newark FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.14 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Placer United 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.45 +0.04 100% 1.2
2 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 225+17 162.67 WWWDW -0.33 +0.00 99% 2.0
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 7601 167+9 182.57 LWWWW -0.42 +0.25 80% 3.7
4 COSC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWDWW +0.39 -0.42 74% 4.0
5 River Islands Surf 7403 2013+7 121.71 WWLWW -0.28 +0.12 18% 6.2
6 Association FC B10/11 7403 139+4 121.71 WLWLL -0.22 +0.17 10% 7.1
7 Davis Legacy 6312 86+2 101.67 WLWDL +0.04 -0.05 10% 6.9
8 Mustang Soccer 7313 1513+2 101.43 WWLWL +0.10 -0.13 5% 7.9
9 1974 Newark FC 5212 68-2 71.40 LWWLD +0.09 -0.03 2% 9.8
10 San Juan SC 5203 712-5 61.20 WLLWL +0.08 -0.01 0% 11.5
11 Marin FC 6213 1318-5 71.17 LLLWW -0.29 +0.20 0% 11.9
12 MVLA 6213 49-5 71.17 WLWLL +0.13 -0.01 0% 12.1
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 129+3 71.00 LLLLW -0.07 -0.01 1% 9.5
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7214 617-11 71.00 WLDWL +0.57 -0.36 0% 12.6
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5104 518-13 30.60 WLLLL +0.47 -0.08 0% 15.1
16 Napa United 7115 818-10 40.57 LLWLD +0.12 -0.05 0% 14.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.12 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.