River Islands Surf
ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · Valley Surf | America (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM
River Islands Sports Park, Field 2 (11v11) ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.3 against · 2.39 expected points)
| Season so far | River Islands Surf | El Camino FC Salinas |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-3 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals against / game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 4 |
| Form (recent first) | W W L W W | L W D L W |
| Biggest win | 4–1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy | 3–2 vs Marin FC |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs Davis Legacy | 0–6 vs Placer United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.60 | -0.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.28 | +0.57 |
Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 1–2; they 1–1. Association FC B10/11 — we 2–3; they 2–1. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 4–1; they 0–1.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
El Camino FC Salinas average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 4 of 7.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
What a win does
COSC sit 4th on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.71.A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the El Camino FC Salinas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (River Islands Surf – El Camino FC Salinas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.88 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 2 | 7th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 4%
- 4th 13%
- 5th 22%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 17%
- 8th 11%
- 9th 6%
- 10th 3%
- 11th 2%
- 12th 1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th <1%
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Placer United | 3.00 (+1.29) | 1st (2.65) | 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.67 (+0.96) | 2nd (2.39) | 31 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 3 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 2.57 (+0.86) | 3rd (2.06) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection |
| 4 | COSC | 1.86 (+0.15) | 4th (1.98) | A point next game |
How the results connect
16 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link River Islands Surf to El Camino FC Salinas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 4th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM |
El Camino FC Salinas 14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 75% |
3–1 | 2.39 | 1.80 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
COSC 4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.74 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM |
Santa Clara Sporting 15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13 |
Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
San Juan SC 10th · 2-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.95 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
Placer United 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +21 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
1–2 | 0.50 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
MVLA 12th · 2-1-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.92 | 1.73 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 01:00 PM |
Marin FC 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -5 |
Home River Islands Sports Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
3–2 | 2.27 | 1.77 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 02:30 PM |
Folsom Lake Surf 2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17 |
Away far trip
Livermore Community Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 1.69 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 13th · 2-1-4 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–2 | 1.38 | 1.67 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Placer United | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | +21 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.45 | +0.04 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B10/11 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Folsom Lake Surf | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 16 | 2.67 | WWWDW | -0.33 | +0.00 | 99% | 2.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 18 | 2.57 | LWWWW | -0.42 | +0.25 | 80% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | COSC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 13 | 1.86 | WWDWW | +0.39 | -0.42 | 75% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | River Islands Surf | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLWW | -0.28 | +0.12 | 17% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Sun Nov 15 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Association FC B10/11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 12 | 1.71 | WLWLL | -0.22 | +0.17 | 10% | 7.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 10 | 1.67 | WLWDL | +0.04 | -0.05 | 12% | 6.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Mustang Soccer | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 10 | 1.43 | WWLWL | +0.10 | -0.13 | 5% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | 1974 Newark FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 | 1.40 | LWWLD | +0.09 | -0.03 | 2% | 10.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | San Juan SC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | 1.20 | WLLWL | +0.08 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B10/11 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Marin FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 7 | 1.17 | LLLWW | -0.29 | +0.20 | 0% | 12.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | MVLA | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 7 | 1.17 | WLWLL | +0.13 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLLW | -0.07 | -0.01 | 1% | 9.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 7 | 1.00 | WLDWL | +0.57 | -0.36 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Santa Clara Sporting | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -13 | 3 | 0.60 | WLLLL | +0.47 | -0.08 | 0% | 15.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B10/11 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | Napa United | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 | 0.57 | LLWLD | +0.12 | -0.05 | 0% | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Santa Rosa United | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.12 | +0.12 | 0% | 16.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.