TableChase Clubs

MVLA

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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12th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-5 goal diff · 4–9
WLWLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.9
+0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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MVLA
12th · 1.17 PPG
at
Marin FC
11th · 1.17 PPG

Dominican University, Kennelly Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.9 against · 1.13 expected points)

Season so farMVLAMarin FC
Position12th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-32-1-3
Points per game1.171.17
Goals for / game0.72.2
Goals against / game1.53.0
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L W L WW W L L L
Biggest win1–0 vs El Camino FC Salinas4–1 vs San Juan SC
Worst loss1–4 at COSC0–5 vs COSC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.50-0.59
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.13-0.29

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 0–0; they 0–4. El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–0; they 2–3. COSC — we 1–4; they 0–5. Santa Clara Sporting — we 2–1; they 3–1. San Juan SC — we 0–2; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Marin FC concede 3.0/game; worst result 0–5 vs COSC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club, 0–2 at San Juan SC, 0–2 at Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (22%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Dominican University.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Marin FC sit 11th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Marin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Marin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.14 PPG		 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 2
Win
1.43 PPG		 9th▲ up 3 8th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 1
Draw
1.14 PPG		 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG		 13th▼ down 1 13th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 7%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 17%
  14. 14th 15%
  15. 15th 10%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Placer United 3.00 (+1.83) 1st (2.65) 41 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.50) 2nd (2.39) 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.57 (+1.40) 3rd (2.06) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 COSC 1.86 (+0.69) 4th (1.98) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 River Islands Surf 1.71 (+0.54) 5th (1.67) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Association FC B10/11 1.71 (+0.54) 7th (1.59) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.67 (+0.50) 6th (1.61) 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.26) 8th (1.50) 16 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 1974 Newark FC 1.40 (+0.23) 10th (1.30) A point next game
10 San Juan SC 1.20 (+0.03) 11th (1.14) A point next game
11 Marin FC 1.17 (+0.00) 12th (1.11) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Marin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
5 favour them
+0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–3 1–4 5–0 1–0 3–2 0–0 4–0 0–2 1–4 3–0 0–2 3–1 8–0 3–2 6–0 2–0 MVLA 12th Santa Clara Sporting 15th COSC 4th El Camino FC Salinas 14th Los Gatos United So… 13th San Juan SC 10th Placer United 1st Marin FC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 8th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Dominican University		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–1 1.13 1.16 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
2nd · 5-1-0 · GD +17		 Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 0–2 0.32 1.06 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 Davis Legacy
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +2		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 0–1 0.84 1.03 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Association FC B10/11
6th · 4-0-3 · GD +4		 Home
Foothill College		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 0–1 0.99 1.03 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
3rd · 6-0-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
18%		 0–1 0.79 1.01 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 1–0 1.99 1.09 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.87 1.07 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Napa United
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 1–1 1.59 1.11 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
8th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–1 1.05 1.11 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
26%		 0–1 1.05 1.10 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Placer United 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.45 +0.04 100% 1.2
2 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 225+17 162.67 WWWDW -0.33 +0.00 99% 2.1
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 7601 167+9 182.57 LWWWW -0.42 +0.25 82% 3.6
4 COSC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWDWW +0.39 -0.42 74% 4.0
5 River Islands Surf 7403 2013+7 121.71 WWLWW -0.28 +0.12 17% 6.3
6 Association FC B10/11 7403 139+4 121.71 WLWLL -0.22 +0.17 10% 7.0
7 Davis Legacy 6312 86+2 101.67 WLWDL +0.04 -0.05 10% 6.9
8 Mustang Soccer 7313 1513+2 101.43 WWLWL +0.10 -0.13 5% 7.9
9 1974 Newark FC 5212 68-2 71.40 LWWLD +0.09 -0.03 2% 9.9
10 San Juan SC 5203 712-5 61.20 WLLWL +0.08 -0.01 0% 11.6
11 Marin FC 6213 1318-5 71.17 LLLWW -0.29 +0.20 0% 12.0
12 MVLA 6213 49-5 71.17 WLWLL +0.13 -0.01 0% 11.9
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 129+3 71.00 LLLLW -0.07 -0.01 1% 9.5
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7214 617-11 71.00 WLDWL +0.57 -0.36 0% 12.6
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5104 518-13 30.60 WLLLL +0.47 -0.08 0% 15.1
16 Napa United 7115 818-10 40.57 LLWLD +0.12 -0.05 0% 14.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.12 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.