Marin FC

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Dominican University, Kennelly Field ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.5 against · 1.65 expected points)

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 0–4; they 0–0. El Camino FC Salinas — we 2–3; they 1–0. COSC — we 0–5; they 1–4. Santa Clara Sporting — we 3–1; they 2–1. San Juan SC — we 4–1; they 0–2.

• They struggle to score
  MVLA average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 3 of 6.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club, 0–5 vs COSC.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 47% / draw 22% / loss 30%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  San Juan SC sit 10th on 1.20 PPG; we are on 1.17.

  A point moves us above San Juan SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Marin FC – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th 1%
7. 7th 2%
8. 8th 3%
9. 9th 7%
10. 10th 10%
11. 11th 16%
12. 12th 17%
13. 13th 17%
14. 14th 15%
15. 15th 9%
16. 16th 3%
17. 17th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.31 PPG if we win out).