TableChase Clubs

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU16 · 17 teams · Los Gatos United Soccer Club (all teams)

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13th
2-1-4 record · 7 played
1.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 12–9
LLLLWlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.5
-0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:30 PM

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Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 1.00 PPG
at
Napa United
16th · 0.57 PPG

Silverado Middle School, Football Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.3 against · 1.93 expected points)

Season so farLos Gatos United Soccer ClubNapa United
Position13th16th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-41-1-5
Points per game1.000.57
Goals for / game1.71.1
Goals against / game1.32.6
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)W L L L LD L W L L
Biggest win4–0 at Marin FC2–0 vs Santa Rosa United
Worst loss1–3 at San Francisco Elite Academy0–3 at Folsom Lake Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.25-0.90
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.07+0.12

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 2–3; they 0–3. Davis Legacy — we 0–1; they 0–2. Association FC B10/11 — we 0–1; they 1–4. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–3; they 1–3. Santa Rosa United — we 5–1; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–0 vs MVLA, 0–1 at Davis Legacy, 0–1 vs Association FC B10/11.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 57% / draw 21% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:30 PM at Silverado Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    MVLA sit 12th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above MVLA on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Napa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Los Gatos United Soccer Club – Napa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.25 PPG		 10th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 3 13th— holds
Win
1.25 PPG		 10th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 3 13th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.88 PPG		 14th▼ down 1 13th— holds 15th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 8th if every rival drops points, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 9%
  13. 13th 6%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th 1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Placer United 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.65) 41 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Folsom Lake Surf 2.67 (+1.67) 2nd (2.39) 36 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 2.57 (+1.57) 3rd (2.06) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 COSC 1.86 (+0.86) 4th (1.98) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 River Islands Surf 1.71 (+0.71) 5th (1.67) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Association FC B10/11 1.71 (+0.71) 7th (1.59) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
7 Davis Legacy 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.61) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.43) 8th (1.50) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 1974 Newark FC 1.40 (+0.40) 10th (1.30) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
10 San Juan SC 1.20 (+0.20) 11th (1.14) A point next game
11 Marin FC 1.17 (+0.17) 12th (1.11) A point next game
12 MVLA 1.17 (+0.17) 13th (1.10) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Los Gatos United Soccer Club to Napa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–3 3–1 0–1 2–0 5–1 0–2 0–1 4–1 2–3 3–0 4–1 3–0 2–2 3–0 3–2 4–2 2–1 0–1 Los Gatos United So… 13th San Francisco Elite… 3rd Davis Legacy 7th Santa Rosa United 17th Association FC B10/… 6th Folsom Lake Surf 2nd 1974 Newark FC 9th River Islands Surf 5th Napa United 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:30 PM		 Napa United
16th · 1-1-5 · GD -10		 Away far trip
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.93 1.12 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:00 PM		 Mustang Soccer
8th · 3-1-3 · GD +2		 Home
Monta Vista High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 1–1 1.59 1.17 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:00 PM		 1974 Newark FC
9th · 2-1-2 · GD -2		 Home
Monta Vista High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.78 1.23 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
14th · 2-1-4 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 1–1 1.93 1.29 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 COSC
4th · 4-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–1 1.17 1.28 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 1-0-4 · GD -13		 Away
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.18 1.35 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 San Juan SC
10th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 1–1 1.74 1.38 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 PM		 Placer United
1st · 6-0-0 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 0–2 0.37 1.31 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 River Islands Surf
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +7		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–1 1.41 1.32 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Placer United 6600 221+21 183.00 WWWWW -0.45 +0.04 100% 1.2
2 Folsom Lake Surf 6510 225+17 162.67 WWWDW -0.33 +0.00 99% 2.1
3 San Francisco Elite Academy 7601 167+9 182.57 LWWWW -0.42 +0.25 80% 3.7
4 COSC 7412 1810+8 131.86 WWDWW +0.39 -0.42 75% 4.0
5 River Islands Surf 7403 2013+7 121.71 WWLWW -0.28 +0.12 18% 6.2
6 Association FC B10/11 7403 139+4 121.71 WLWLL -0.22 +0.17 8% 7.1
7 Davis Legacy 6312 86+2 101.67 WLWDL +0.04 -0.05 12% 6.9
8 Mustang Soccer 7313 1513+2 101.43 WWLWL +0.10 -0.13 5% 8.0
9 1974 Newark FC 5212 68-2 71.40 LWWLD +0.09 -0.03 1% 9.9
10 San Juan SC 5203 712-5 61.20 WLLWL +0.08 -0.01 0% 11.5
11 Marin FC 6213 1318-5 71.17 LLLWW -0.29 +0.20 0% 12.1
12 MVLA 6213 49-5 71.17 WLWLL +0.13 -0.01 0% 11.8
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 129+3 71.00 LLLLW -0.07 -0.01 1% 9.5
14 El Camino FC Salinas 7214 617-11 71.00 WLDWL +0.57 -0.36 0% 12.6
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5104 518-13 30.60 WLLLL +0.47 -0.08 0% 15.2
16 Napa United 7115 818-10 40.57 LLWLD +0.12 -0.05 0% 14.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 325-22 00.00 LLLLL +0.12 +0.12 0% 16.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.78 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.