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Zeta Academy

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · Zeta Academy (all teams)

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10th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-16 goal diff · 8–24
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.4
+0.39 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:15 AM

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Zeta Academy
10th · 1.00 PPG
vs
Elite FC 2
12th · 0.50 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs A ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.9 for, 2.5 against · 2.05 expected points)

Season so farZeta AcademyElite FC 2
Position10th12th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-41-0-5
Points per game1.000.50
Goals for / game1.31.3
Goals against / game4.06.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L L L L WL W L L L
Biggest win1–0 vs Reds FC 23–2 vs Chula Vista FC 2
Worst loss0–8 vs Rayados Academy San Diego1–13 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.72-3.11
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.39+0.82

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 3–2; they 1–2. Crusaders SC — we 0–7; they 1–13. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 0–8; they 3–10. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 3–5; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Elite FC 2 concede 6.7/game; worst result 1–13 at Crusaders SC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at Crusaders SC, 0–8 vs Rayados Academy San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 14% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    BOCA OC (2) sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above BOCA OC (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Zeta Academy – Elite FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.29 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 10th— holds
Win
1.29 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 10th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
10th— holds 9th▲ up 1 11th▼ down 1
Loss
0.86 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 11th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 46%
  12. 12th 35%
  13. 13th 8%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.75) 1st (2.51) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+1.00) 3rd (1.98) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.72) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 1.80 (+0.80) 2nd (2.10) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Chula Vista FC 2 1.71 (+0.71) 6th (1.53) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.67) 4th (1.75) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+0.29) 8th (1.41) 25 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
8 Reds FC 2 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.14) A point next game
9 BOCA OC (2) 1.00 (+0.00) 9th (1.24) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Zeta Academy to Elite FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–8 10–3 3–2 2–1 3–5 2–3 0–7 13–1 3–2 7–0 2–1 1–1 6–0 3–0 0–3 1–2 0–1 2–3 Zeta Academy 10th Rayados Academy San… 2nd EMPIRE SC 11th Chula Vista FC 2 5th Crusaders SC 1st ALBION SC San Diego… 7th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Rangers FC 2 6th Elite FC 2 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 4th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:15 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.05 1.15 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.97 1.13 Upside
Sat Nov 7
04:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.33 1.04 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.24 0.96 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Away
Castle Park High School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.91 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.79 0.90 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.12 0.84 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–5 0.15 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.73 0.79 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 0.81 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–2 0.56 0.80 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.54 0.78 Upside
Sat Apr 17
04:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.35 0.76 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.69 0.81 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
09:55 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.70 0.80 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 0.79 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.14 0.76 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 0.75 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 88% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 41% 5.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 95% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 13% 6.3
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 48% 4.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 2% 8.5
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.4
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.