TableChase Clubs

BOCA OC (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)

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9th
1-0-2 record · 3 played
1.00 points per game
-5 goal diff · 4–9
LWLlast 3
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5
+1.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 08:00 AM

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BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1.00 PPG
at
EMPIRE SC
11th · 0.60 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.7 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farBOCA OC (2)EMPIRE SC
Position9th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-21-0-4
Points per game1.000.60
Goals for / game1.31.0
Goals against / game3.02.6
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L W LL W L L L
Biggest win1–0 at Rangers FC 22–1 vs Elite FC 2
Worst loss2–6 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 21–5 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.47-1.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.47-0.95

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    EMPIRE SC average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 2 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 50% / draw 20% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 08:00 AM at Eastvale Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 08:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Reds FC 2 sit 8th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Reds FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the EMPIRE SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC (2) – EMPIRE SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1
Win
1.50 PPG
7th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
9th— holds 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Loss
0.75 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
8.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 27%
  10. 10th 25%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.75) 1st (2.51) 63 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+1.00) 3rd (1.98) 45 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.72) 45 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 1.80 (+0.80) 2nd (2.10) 41 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
5 Chula Vista FC 2 1.71 (+0.71) 6th (1.53) 39 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.67) 4th (1.75) 38 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+0.29) 8th (1.41) A point next game
8 Reds FC 2 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.14) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link BOCA OC (2) to EMPIRE SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
0 favour them
+4.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 1–2 1–0 1–3 3–1 2–6 7–0 1–2 3–0 3–0 2–0 5–1 6–0 2–1 7–0 3–2 13–1 BOCA OC (2) 9th Rangers FC 2 6th Crusaders SC 1st ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Reds FC 2 8th Elite FC 2 12th Chula Vista FC 2 5th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Zeta Academy 10th EMPIRE SC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.20 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
08:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.72 1.18 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:15 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.86 1.31 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:55 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
4–1 2.54 1.52 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Away
Madison High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 1.00 1.45 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:50 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–4 0.47 1.32 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 1.20 Upside
Sun Mar 7
09:55 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.94 1.18 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:55 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.60 1.12 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 1.11 Upside
Sat Apr 3
09:55 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–3 0.71 1.07 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.09 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:55 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.05 1.09 Upside
Sun Apr 18
09:55 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 1.14 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
04:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.78 1.12 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:55 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.15 1.18 Swing game
Sat May 1
03:55 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.19 1.18 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.29 1.23 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:55 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.26 1.24 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.30 1.24 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.50 1.25 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.24 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 88% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 43% 4.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 95% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 12% 6.4
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 48% 4.8
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 1% 8.5
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.4
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.