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Reds FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · SoCal Reds FC (all teams)

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8th
2-0-4 record · 6 played
1.00 points per game
-3 goal diff · 5–8
LWLLWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.2
+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:20 PM

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Reds FC 2
8th · 1.00 PPG
at

SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL, FIELD 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.2 for, 2.8 against · 0.58 expected points)

Season so farReds FC 2Rayados Academy San Diego
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-0-44-0-2
Points per game1.002.00
Goals for / game0.84.3
Goals against / game1.32.0
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless20
Form (recent first)W L L W LL W L W W
Biggest win1–0 vs EMPIRE SC8–0 at Zeta Academy
Worst loss1–3 vs Crusaders SC1–4 at Chula Vista FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.32+1.34
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.17-0.46

Common opponents: Zeta Academy — we 0–1; they 8–0. ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 1–2; they 2–0. Rangers FC 2 — we 2–1; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Rayados Academy San Diego score 4.3/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Zeta Academy, 0–1 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:20 PM at SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rayados Academy San Diego game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Reds FC 2 – Rayados Academy San Diego) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.86 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3
Win
1.29 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 9th▼ down 1
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2
Loss
0.86 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 26%
  10. 10th 40%
  11. 11th 8%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.75) 1st (2.51) 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+1.00) 3rd (1.98) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.72) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 1.80 (+0.80) 2nd (2.10) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 Chula Vista FC 2 1.71 (+0.71) 6th (1.53) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.67) 4th (1.75) 35 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+0.29) 8th (1.41) 25 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Reds FC 2 to Rayados Academy San Diego through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
3 even
12 favour them
-2.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 3–2 1–2 0–2 0–1 0–8 6–0 3–10 2–1 3–5 4–1 1–3 1–1 0–1 1–0 0–3 2–0 2–1 2–3 Reds FC 2 8th Rangers FC 2 6th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Zeta Academy 10th Crusaders SC 1st EMPIRE SC 11th Elite FC 2 12th Chula Vista FC 2 5th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Rayados Academy San… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 6th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:20 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–2 0.58 0.94 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.98 0.95 Upside
Sun Nov 8
05:00 PM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
Orange County Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.38 1.11 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
05:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Portola Springs Park
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.09 1.10 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.01 1.19 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 1.22 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
26%
0–1 1.05 1.21 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.52 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.18 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.34 1.13 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
0–1 0.80 1.11 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.09 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.20 1.10 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.30 1.11 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.16 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Portola Springs Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.70 1.14 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.25 1.14 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.05 1.14 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 88% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 43% 4.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 94% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 13% 6.4
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 47% 4.8
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 1% 8.6
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.3
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.