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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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4th
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+12 goal diff · 19–7
LWWLWlast 5
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6
+0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 03:15 PM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 1.80 PPG
vs

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.6 against · 2.08 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa Ana 2FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-22-0-1
Points per game1.802.00
Goals for / game3.82.3
Goals against / game1.41.7
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L W W LL W W
Biggest win7–0 at Elite FC 22–0 vs Chula Vista FC 2
Worst loss2–3 at Rayados Academy San Diego4–5 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.51+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.10+0.75

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 1–2; they 4–5. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 3–0; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 64% / draw 16% / loss 20%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.80.

    A win moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
2.6 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 51%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+0.95) 1st (2.51) 57 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+0.20) 3rd (1.98) Win next game
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+0.20) 5th (1.72) Win next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 5–4 3–0 0–2 3–1 0–1 6–2 1–3 7–0 1–13 3–2 2–3 1–4 ALBION SC Santa Ana… 4th Crusaders SC 1st Chula Vista FC 2 5th BOCA OC (2) 9th Elite FC 2 12th Rayados Academy San… 2nd Reds FC 2 8th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.21 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
03:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.08 1.85 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:15 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.17 1.89 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
11:15 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.69 1.99 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
04:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.59 1.95 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.83 1.93 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–1 2.94 2.03 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
03:15 PM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.71 2.08 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
09:55 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.26 2.10 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.22 2.03 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
2–0 2.32 2.05 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.16 2.06 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–1 2.55 2.09 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.31 2.10 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.78 2.08 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.92 2.08 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.82 2.11 Bank it
Sat May 8
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 2.10 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Away
Portola Springs Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 2.10 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.04 2.10 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 87% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 43% 4.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 94% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 13% 6.4
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 47% 4.8
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 2% 8.5
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.3
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.