TableChase Clubs

AC Brea (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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13th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 12:45 PM

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AC Brea (2)
13th · 0.00 PPG
at
Crusaders SC
1st · 2.75 PPG

Pershing Middle School, Pershing MS Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.1 against · 0.33 expected points)

Season so farAC Brea (2)Crusaders SC
Position13th1st
Record (W-D-L)0-0-07-1-0
Points per game0.002.75
Goals for / game0.04.5
Goals against / game0.01.1
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)—W W D W W
Biggest win—13–1 vs Elite FC 2
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+2.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-0.38

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Crusaders SC score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Crusaders SC concede only 1.1/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 8%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:45 PM at Pershing Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Elite FC 2 sit 12th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above Elite FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 12 1st▲ up 12 1st▲ up 12
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 5 9th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 2%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 24 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+2.75) 1st (2.51) A point next game
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+2.00) 3rd (1.98) A point next game
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.72) A point next game
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 1.80 (+1.80) 2nd (2.10) A point next game
5 Chula Vista FC 2 1.71 (+1.71) 6th (1.53) A point next game
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+1.67) 4th (1.75) A point next game
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+1.29) 8th (1.41) A point next game
8 Reds FC 2 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.14) A point next game
9 BOCA OC (2) 1.00 (+1.00) 9th (1.24) A point next game
10 Zeta Academy 1.00 (+1.00) 11th (0.75) A point next game
11 EMPIRE SC 0.60 (+0.60) 12th (0.67) Already ahead
12 Elite FC 2 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.44) Already ahead

Position over the season

11 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
12:45 PM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–4 0.33 0.33 Upside
Sat Nov 14
04:00 PM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Away
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–1 2.51 1.42 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–1 2.12 1.65 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
14%
1–3 0.55 1.38 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.46 1.40 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.14 1.35 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.22 1.33 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.35 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 1.26 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.95 1.23 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.38 1.34 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 1.30 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
5–1 2.71 1.41 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.49 1.41 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
1–1 1.72 1.43 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.30 1.42 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.79 1.39 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Home
Whittier College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.22 1.43 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.96 1.46 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–1 1.43 1.46 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–2 1.15 1.45 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.82 1.46 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–3 0.65 1.43 Upside
Sat May 29
04:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 87% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 43% 4.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 94% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 13% 6.4
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 48% 4.8
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 2% 8.5
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.3
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.