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ALBION SC San Diego (1)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U17 · 13 teams · ALBION SC San Diego (all teams)

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7th
3-0-4 record · 7 played
1.29 points per game
+0 goal diff · 10–10
LLWWWlast 5
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
+0.07 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 1.29 PPG
vs

Hickman Fields, Hickman #1 11 v 11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.6 for, 1.7 against · 1.33 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC San Diego (1)FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Position7th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-42-0-1
Points per game1.292.00
Goals for / game1.42.3
Goals against / game1.41.7
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)W W W L LL W W
Biggest win5–1 at EMPIRE SC2–0 vs Chula Vista FC 2
Worst loss0–2 at Crusaders SC4–5 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.06+0.47
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.07+0.75

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 0–2; they 4–5. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 0–1; they 2–0. Reds FC 2 — we 2–1; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–2 at Crusaders SC, 0–1 vs Chula Vista FC 2, 0–2 vs Rayados Academy San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC San Diego (1) – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.25 PPG
7th— holds 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3
Win
1.50 PPG
6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.25 PPG
7th— holds 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.13 PPG
7th— holds 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 9%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 23%
  8. 8th 23%
  9. 9th 15%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Crusaders SC 2.75 (+1.46) 1st (2.51) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.00 (+0.71) 3rd (1.98) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 2.00 (+0.71) 5th (1.72) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 1.80 (+0.51) 2nd (2.10) 35 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
5 Chula Vista FC 2 1.71 (+0.42) 6th (1.53) 33 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
6 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.38) 4th (1.75) 32 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC San Diego (1) to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
3 even
8 favour them
-1.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 0–1 0–2 5–4 0–1 0–2 1–3 1–2 1–1 5–1 0–3 2–1 1–0 0–1 3–5 1–2 0–7 ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Reds FC 2 8th Crusaders SC 1st Chula Vista FC 2 5th Rangers FC 2 6th EMPIRE SC 11th Zeta Academy 10th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 9th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
37%
1–1 1.33 1.29 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Away
Ruben S. Ayala Park · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.43 1.42 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
03:15 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.34 Upside
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Home
Madison High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.78 1.38 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM
Crusaders SC
1st · 7-1-0 · GD +27
Home
Hickman Fields
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.63 1.32 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.31 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 4-0-2 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.76 1.27 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +6
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.97 1.25 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–0 1.68 1.28 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
10th · 2-0-4 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
2–1 2.29 1.34 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
11th · 1-0-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.38 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.36 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -32
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.63 1.43 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
4th · 3-0-2 · GD +12
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 1.40 Upside
Sun May 2
09:55 AM
BOCA OC (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -5
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.51 1.41 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Hickman Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.56 1.41 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
13th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.29 1.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Crusaders SC 8710 369+27 222.75 WWDWW -0.38 -0.15 100% 1.1
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 6402 2612+14 122.00 WWLWL -0.46 -0.05 87% 3.2
3 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3201 75+2 62.00 WWL +0.75 -0.18 43% 4.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5302 197+12 91.80 LWWLW +0.10 -0.21 95% 2.6
5 Chula Vista FC 2 7403 1512+3 121.71 WWLLW -0.40 +0.09 13% 6.4
6 Rangers FC 2 6312 137+6 101.67 LWWDL +0.04 -0.10 47% 4.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1010+0 91.29 LLWWW +0.07 -0.12 5% 7.3
8 Reds FC 2 6204 58-3 61.00 LWLLW +0.17 -0.03 0% 9.2
9 BOCA OC (2) 3102 49-5 31.00 LWL +1.47 -0.20 2% 8.5
10 Zeta Academy 6204 824-16 61.00 WLLLL +0.39 +0.02 0% 11.4
11 EMPIRE SC 5104 513-8 30.60 LLLWL -0.95 +0.35 0% 11.6
12 Elite FC 2 6105 840-32 30.50 LLLWL +0.82 +0.04 0% 12.7
13 AC Brea (2) 0000 00+0 00.00 — -0.03 ——

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.