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Zeta Academy

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · Zeta Academy (all teams)

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8th
2-2-2 record · 6 played
1.33 points per game
-2 goal diff · 14–16
DLDWLlast 5
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.2
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Zeta Academy
8th · 1.33 PPG
vs
Elite FC 2
1st · 2.50 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs A ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.0 for, 3.8 against · 0.64 expected points)

Season so farZeta AcademyElite FC 2
Position8th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-2-25-0-1
Points per game1.332.50
Goals for / game2.33.8
Goals against / game2.71.7
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W D L DW W W L W
Biggest win6–0 vs Reds FC 24–0 at Rangers FC 2
Worst loss0–9 at Crusaders SC2–4 at EMPIRE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.39+1.51
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29-0.01

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 1–1; they 2–4. Crusaders SC — we 0–9; they 7–4. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 1–1; they 5–1. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 4–2; they 4–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Elite FC 2 score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–9 at Crusaders SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 17%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Elite FC 2 have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    AC Brea (2) sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above AC Brea (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Elite FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Zeta Academy – Elite FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.14 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3
Win
1.57 PPG
6th▲ up 2 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.29 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Loss
1.14 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 17%
  9. 9th 20%
  10. 10th 17%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 12%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.58 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+1.17) 1st (2.27) 52 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.14 (+0.81) 6th (1.55) 44 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 BOCA OC (2) 2.00 (+0.67) 2nd (2.03) 40 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 EMPIRE SC 2.00 (+0.67) 4th (1.70) 40 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 2.00 (+0.67) 3rd (1.84) 40 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 Crusaders SC 1.50 (+0.17) 5th (1.61) A point next game
7 AC Brea (2) 1.50 (+0.17) 7th (1.50) A point next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Zeta Academy to Elite FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
14 favour them
-3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 1–4 1–1 4–2 1–1 1–5 0–9 4–7 1–2 0–1 3–0 2–0 6–0 0–1 0–4 0–1 1–6 1–0 Zeta Academy 8th Chula Vista FC 2 9th EMPIRE SC 4th Rayados Academy San… 10th Crusaders SC 6th Reds FC 2 13th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th Rangers FC 2 11th Elite FC 2 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 3rd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
17%
2–3 0.64 1.23 Upside
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–3 0.77 1.18 Upside
Sat Nov 7
06:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.51 1.21 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Home
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.06 1.20 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 1.20 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.11 1.28 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
01:30 PM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.95 1.25 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 1.24 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.44 1.25 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.26 1.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
22%
1–2 0.84 1.23 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.07 1.22 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.53 1.24 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
02:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–2 1.23 1.24 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–4 0.41 1.20 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:50 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 1.17 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–1 1.77 1.19 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.80 1.18 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 99% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 23% 5.9
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 93% 2.4
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 48% 4.8
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 74% 3.7
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 37% 5.3
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 22% 6.3
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 1% 9.2
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 1% 9.1
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 0% 10.1
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.5
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 1% 9.4
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.