TableChase Clubs

EMPIRE SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · EMPIRE SC (all teams)

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4th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+4 goal diff · 12–8
DWWWLlast 5
50% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
-0.20 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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EMPIRE SC
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.5 against · 1.22 expected points)

Season so farEMPIRE SCBOCA OC (2)
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-1-12-0-1
Points per game2.002.00
Goals for / game2.44.0
Goals against / game1.61.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W W DL W W
Biggest win4–1 at Reds FC 27–1 vs Crusaders SC
Worst loss1–4 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)2–3 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.39+1.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.20+0.14

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    BOCA OC (2) score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 34%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    BOCA OC (2) sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above BOCA OC (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (EMPIRE SC – BOCA OC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.83 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.17 PPG
2nd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 1 3rd▲ up 1
Draw
1.83 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.67 PPG
5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
50% top 4
50% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 9%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 9%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+0.50) 1st (2.27) 50 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.14 (+0.14) 6th (1.55) A point next game
3 BOCA OC (2) 2.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.03) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link EMPIRE SC to BOCA OC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
5 favour them
-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 0–1 1–3 4–2 7–4 1–7 2–0 1–2 3–2 1–4 2–1 4–0 1–0 1–6 0–6 1–1 0–9 EMPIRE SC 4th Reds FC 2 13th Elite FC 2 1st Chula Vista FC 2 9th ALBION SC San Diego… 2nd Zeta Academy 8th Rangers FC 2 11th Crusaders SC 6th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th BOCA OC (2) 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.04 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 1.87 Upside
Sun Nov 1
06:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–1 1.82 1.86 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.25 1.79 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:40 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.78 1.79 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
02:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
01:30 PM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
Whittier College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.39 1.74 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.57 1.81 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
01:15 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 1.76 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.94 1.78 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.79 1.71 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 1.99 1.73 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.62 1.72 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.46 1.71 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 1.70 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:50 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.92 1.66 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.05 1.68 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 1.67 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.69 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.70 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 99% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 24% 5.9
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 92% 2.4
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 50% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 74% 3.7
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 35% 5.3
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 21% 6.4
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 1% 9.2
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 1% 9.0
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 0% 10.2
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.6
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 1% 9.4
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.