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Crusaders SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · Crusaders SC (all teams)

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6th
4-0-4 record · 8 played
1.50 points per game
+7 goal diff · 29–22
WLLWLlast 5
36% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Crusaders SC
6th · 1.50 PPG
at
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 1.00 PPG

Hoover High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.5 against · 1.72 expected points)

Season so farCrusaders SCChula Vista FC 2
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-42-1-4
Points per game1.501.00
Goals for / game3.61.7
Goals against / game2.82.3
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L W L L WW L L L L
Biggest win9–0 vs Zeta Academy3–0 vs Rayados Academy San Diego
Worst loss1–7 at BOCA OC (2)1–4 at Elite FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.54-0.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.17

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 6–0; they 4–3. Zeta Academy — we 9–0; they 2–4. FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 2–1; they 1–1. ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 1–5; they 1–2. Elite FC 2 — we 4–7; they 1–4.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Rangers FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 17% / loss 32%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Hoover High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Chula Vista FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Crusaders SC – Chula Vista FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Win
1.67 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
1.44 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.33 PPG
7th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
36% top 4
64% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 5%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 22%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+1.00) 1st (2.27) 48 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.14 (+0.64) 6th (1.55) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 BOCA OC (2) 2.00 (+0.50) 2nd (2.03) 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 EMPIRE SC 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.70) 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 2.00 (+0.50) 3rd (1.84) 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Crusaders SC to Chula Vista FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

13 favour us
1 even
10 favour them
+1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–7 4–1 2–1 1–1 1–5 2–1 6–0 3–4 9–0 4–2 1–0 6–1 0–6 5–1 0–3 0–1 0–4 2–4 2–0 1–2 Crusaders SC 6th Elite FC 2 1st FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 12th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th ALBION SC San Diego… 2nd Zeta Academy 8th Reds FC 2 13th Rangers FC 2 11th Rayados Academy San… 10th EMPIRE SC 4th Chula Vista FC 2 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.04 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.72 1.52 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:40 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
3–2 1.76 1.55 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.58 1.55 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
3–2 1.54 1.55 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
3–3 1.19 1.52 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.75 1.54 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.67 1.55 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
2–2 1.16 1.52 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
3–1 2.17 1.56 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.19 1.60 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
4–1 2.71 1.65 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–4 0.69 1.61 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.05 1.63 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
3–3 1.40 1.62 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.23 1.60 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.88 1.61 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 100% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 21% 6.1
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 93% 2.4
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 50% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 75% 3.6
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 36% 5.2
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 21% 6.3
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 1% 9.1
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 1% 9.1
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 0% 10.1
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.5
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 1% 9.4
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.