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BOCA OC (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 12–5
WWLlast 3
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
+0.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2.00 PPG
at
EMPIRE SC
4th · 2.00 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so farBOCA OC (2)EMPIRE SC
Position3rd4th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-13-1-1
Points per game2.002.00
Goals for / game4.02.4
Goals against / game1.71.6
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W WL W W W D
Biggest win7–1 vs Crusaders SC4–1 at Reds FC 2
Worst loss2–3 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 21–4 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.17+0.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.14-0.20

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 19% / loss 34%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Eastvale Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC San Diego (1) sit 2nd on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above ALBION SC San Diego (1) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the EMPIRE SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC (2) – EMPIRE SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3
Win
2.25 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
1.75 PPG
5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3 6th▼ down 3
Loss
1.50 PPG
6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4 8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

20% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 20%
  2. 2nd 44%
  3. 3rd 19%
  4. 4th 10%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+0.50) 1st (2.27) 54 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.14 (+0.14) 6th (1.55) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link BOCA OC (2) to EMPIRE SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 1–0 1–4 7–1 4–7 2–4 2–3 2–1 0–2 0–1 0–4 1–2 4–1 6–1 6–0 9–0 1–1 BOCA OC (2) 3rd Rangers FC 2 11th Crusaders SC 6th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th Reds FC 2 13th Elite FC 2 1st Chula Vista FC 2 9th ALBION SC San Diego… 2nd Zeta Academy 8th EMPIRE SC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 11th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.59 1.90 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
3–2 2.08 1.93 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:50 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.43 1.85 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
12:30 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Madison High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
3–2 1.90 1.86 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:20 PM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Away
MEADOW PARK
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.13 1.89 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
3–3 1.66 1.87 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
11:50 AM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–0 2.36 1.92 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
11:50 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.81 1.91 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–1 2.03 1.92 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–2 1.77 1.90 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
11:50 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
2–1 2.36 1.94 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
4–1 2.67 1.99 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:50 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.23 2.00 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
11:50 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.91 2.00 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
02:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.99 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
11:50 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 2.01 Bank it
Sat May 1
02:00 PM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.31 2.03 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.08 1.98 Upside
Sun May 2
11:50 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
3–1 2.21 1.99 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–1 2.80 2.03 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.09 2.03 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 99% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 23% 6.0
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 93% 2.5
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 50% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 74% 3.7
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 37% 5.2
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 20% 6.3
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 2% 9.1
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 1% 9.0
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 0% 10.2
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.5
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 1% 9.4
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.