BOCA OC (2)
Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 12 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.1 against · 1.59 expected points)
| Season so far | BOCA OC (2) | EMPIRE SC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 3-1-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals for / game | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W | L W W W D |
| Biggest win | 7–1 vs Crusaders SC | 4–1 at Reds FC 2 |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 | 1–4 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.17 | +0.39 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.14 | -0.20 |
Game plan
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 19% / loss 34%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Eastvale Community Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
ALBION SC San Diego (1) sit 2nd on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above ALBION SC San Diego (1) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the EMPIRE SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC (2) – EMPIRE SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.75 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 7th▼ down 4 | 8th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 20%
- 2nd 44%
- 3rd 19%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 2%
- 7th 1%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elite FC 2 | 2.50 (+0.50) | 1st (2.27) | 54 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection |
| 2 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 2.14 (+0.14) | 6th (1.55) | A point next game |
How the results connect
9 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link BOCA OC (2) to EMPIRE SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
11 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.11 · 11th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
EMPIRE SC 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away Eastvale Community Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.59 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Zeta Academy 8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2 |
Away Portola Springs Community Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.08 | 1.93 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:50 AM |
Elite FC 2 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 42% |
2–2 | 1.43 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 12:30 PM |
ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0 |
Away Madison High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
3–2 | 1.90 | 1.86 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 12:20 PM |
Rayados Academy San Diego 10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Away MEADOW PARK |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 1.89 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 12:00 AM |
Crusaders SC 6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
3–3 | 1.66 | 1.87 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 7 11:50 AM |
Rangers FC 2 11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–0 | 2.36 | 1.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 11:50 AM |
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Upper) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.81 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 12:00 AM |
Chula Vista FC 2 9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–1 | 2.03 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
AC Brea (2) 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–2 | 1.77 | 1.90 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 11:50 AM |
Rayados Academy San Diego 10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
2–1 | 2.36 | 1.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 2 13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.67 | 1.99 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 11:50 AM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–1 | 2.23 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 11:50 AM |
EMPIRE SC 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 58% |
2–1 | 1.91 | 2.00 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 02:15 PM |
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1 |
Away RJRSP |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 25 11:50 AM |
Zeta Academy 8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 75% |
3–1 | 2.37 | 2.01 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 02:00 PM |
Chula Vista FC 2 9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.31 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 AM |
Elite FC 2 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.08 | 1.98 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 11:50 AM |
ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
3–1 | 2.21 | 1.99 | Swing game |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Reds FC 2 13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–1 | 2.80 | 2.03 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
AC Brea (2) 7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1 |
Home El Rancho Charter School (Track Field) |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
3–2 | 2.09 | 2.03 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Elite FC 2 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 15 | 2.50 | WLWWW | -0.01 | -0.14 | 99% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Zeta Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 7 at BOCA OC (2) See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | ALBION SC San Diego (1) | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 16 | +0 | 15 | 2.14 | WWWWW | -0.40 | +0.20 | 23% | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Elite FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | BOCA OC (2) | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.14 | -0.11 | 93% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at EMPIRE SC · Sat Oct 31 at Zeta Academy · Sat Nov 7 vs Elite FC 2 See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | EMPIRE SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWWL | -0.20 | +0.04 | 50% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs BOCA OC (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Rangers FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at Crusaders SC See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWWL | +0.41 | -0.17 | 74% | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sat Nov 7 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sat Nov 14 at Zeta Academy See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Crusaders SC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 12 | 1.50 | WLLWL | -0.01 | -0.04 | 37% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Chula Vista FC 2 · Sat Oct 31 vs AC Brea (2) · Sat Nov 7 vs EMPIRE SC See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | AC Brea (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 | 1.50 | LW | -0.04 | +0.01 | 20% | 6.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Rangers FC 2 · Sat Oct 31 at Crusaders SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Reds FC 2 See all 22 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Zeta Academy | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 8 | 1.33 | DLDWL | -0.29 | +0.17 | 2% | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Elite FC 2 · Sat Oct 31 vs BOCA OC (2) · Sat Nov 7 at Rangers FC 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Chula Vista FC 2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLLW | +0.17 | +0.00 | 1% | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Crusaders SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Reds FC 2 · Sun Nov 8 at AC Brea (2) See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Rayados Academy San Diego | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | DWLWL | +0.12 | +0.05 | 0% | 10.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Reds FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) · Sun Nov 8 vs EMPIRE SC See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Rangers FC 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 6 | 1.00 | LLLWW | +0.07 | +0.05 | 0% | 10.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at AC Brea (2) · Sun Nov 1 vs EMPIRE SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Zeta Academy See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | 0.67 | DDL | -0.52 | +0.12 | 1% | 9.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC San Diego (1) · Sun Nov 1 at ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs Rayados Academy San Diego See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Reds FC 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 1 | 0.17 | DLLLL | -0.06 | +0.25 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Rayados Academy San Diego · Sun Nov 1 at Chula Vista FC 2 · Sat Nov 7 at AC Brea (2) See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.