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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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5th
4-0-2 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+3 goal diff · 12–9
LWWWLlast 5
74% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.7
+0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:15 PM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 2.00 PPG
vs

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.2 against · 1.91 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa Ana 2FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Position5th12th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-20-2-1
Points per game2.000.67
Goals for / game2.01.3
Goals against / game1.51.7
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W W LL D D
Biggest win5–1 at Crusaders SC—
Worst loss1–4 at AC Brea (2)1–2 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47-0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.41-0.52

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 5–1; they 1–2. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 2–1; they 1–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Elite FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 57% / draw 21% / loss 22%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    EMPIRE SC sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above EMPIRE SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.14 PPG
2nd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 2 5th— holds
Win
2.14 PPG
2nd▲ up 3 3rd▲ up 2 5th— holds
Draw
1.86 PPG
5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.71 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
74% top 4
26% below the top 4
3.7 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 17%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Elite FC 2 2.50 (+0.50) 1st (2.27) 48 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 2.14 (+0.14) 6th (1.55) A point next game
3 BOCA OC (2) 2.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.03) A point next game
4 EMPIRE SC 2.00 (+0.00) 4th (1.70) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 favour them
+3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 1–1 5–1 2–1 0–1 4–1 1–0 0–3 7–4 3–2 7–1 6–1 2–2 ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th Chula Vista FC 2 9th Crusaders SC 6th Elite FC 2 1st Rayados Academy San… 10th BOCA OC (2) 3rd Reds FC 2 13th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 12th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
01:15 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.91 1.99 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:15 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.86 1.97 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 1.95 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
06:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
1–0 1.84 1.94 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–0 2.05 1.95 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
1st · 5-0-1 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 1.88 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:15 PM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.59 1.86 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
11:50 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.00 1.80 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 1.79 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–0 2.57 1.84 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 1.85 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.32 1.82 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.75 1.81 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.66 1.80 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–1 1.57 1.79 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.03 1.80 Swing game
Sat May 8
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
1–0 2.06 1.82 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Away
Portola Springs Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–1 2.39 1.84 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 100% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 22% 6.0
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 93% 2.4
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 48% 4.8
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 74% 3.7
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 39% 5.2
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 21% 6.3
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 1% 9.2
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 2% 9.1
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 1% 10.1
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.5
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 1% 9.3
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.