TableChase Clubs

Elite FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U16 · 13 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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1st
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+13 goal diff · 23–10
WLWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.4
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Elite FC 2
1st · 2.50 PPG
at
Zeta Academy
8th · 1.33 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs A ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.0 against · 2.23 expected points)

Season so farElite FC 2Zeta Academy
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-12-2-2
Points per game2.501.33
Goals for / game3.82.3
Goals against / game1.72.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W L WL W D L D
Biggest win4–0 at Rangers FC 26–0 vs Reds FC 2
Worst loss2–4 at EMPIRE SC0–9 at Crusaders SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.51-0.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01-0.29

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 2–4; they 1–1. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 5–1; they 1–1. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 4–1; they 4–2. Crusaders SC — we 7–4; they 0–9.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 70% / draw 13% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Zeta Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC 2 – Zeta Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.57 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.14 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

71% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.4 average finish
  1. 1st 71%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 6%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC 2 to Zeta Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

14 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–1 2–4 2–4 1–1 5–1 1–1 7–4 9–0 1–0 2–1 0–2 0–3 4–0 1–0 0–6 6–1 1–0 0–1 Elite FC 2 1st Chula Vista FC 2 9th EMPIRE SC 4th Rayados Academy San… 10th Crusaders SC 6th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 5th Rangers FC 2 11th Reds FC 2 13th Zeta Academy 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–2 2.23 2.46 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
02:00 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Ruben S. Ayala Park · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.34 2.45 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:50 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.40 2.33 Upside
Sun Nov 8
03:00 PM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Away
Orange County Great Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.75 2.37 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Home
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 2.36 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
11th · 2-0-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 2.37 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–1 1.65 2.31 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
7th · 1-0-1 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.93 2.29 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 2.27 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
3–1 2.36 2.27 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
10th · 2-1-4 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.29 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–1 2.17 2.28 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
6th · 4-0-4 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
4–2 2.19 2.28 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-2-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
4–1 2.49 2.29 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
2nd · 5-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–2 2.05 2.27 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
3rd · 2-0-1 · GD +7
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.76 2.25 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
13th · 0-1-5 · GD -16
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.28 Bank it
Tue May 25
01:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
12th · 0-2-1 · GD -1
Away
South Fontana
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
2–1 2.11 2.27 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Elite FC 2 6501 2310+13 152.50 WLWWW -0.01 -0.14 99% 1.4
2 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7502 1616+0 152.14 WWWWW -0.40 +0.20 20% 6.0
3 BOCA OC (2) 3201 125+7 62.00 WWL +0.14 -0.11 93% 2.4
4 EMPIRE SC 5311 128+4 102.00 DWWWL -0.20 +0.04 49% 4.8
5 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6402 129+3 122.00 LWWWL +0.41 -0.17 75% 3.7
6 Crusaders SC 8404 2922+7 121.50 WLLWL -0.01 -0.04 36% 5.2
7 AC Brea (2) 2101 54+1 31.50 LW -0.04 +0.01 22% 6.2
8 Zeta Academy 6222 1416-2 81.33 DLDWL -0.29 +0.17 2% 9.2
9 Chula Vista FC 2 7214 1216-4 71.00 LLLLW +0.17 +0.00 1% 9.0
10 Rayados Academy San Diego 7214 713-6 71.00 DWLWL +0.12 +0.05 0% 10.1
11 Rangers FC 2 6204 410-6 61.00 LLLWW +0.07 +0.05 0% 10.6
12 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3021 45-1 20.67 DDL -0.52 +0.12 2% 9.4
13 Reds FC 2 6015 521-16 10.17 DLLLL -0.06 +0.25 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.