TableChase Clubs

EMPIRE SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U15 · 13 teams · EMPIRE SC (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 17–4
WWWWWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-0.01 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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EMPIRE SC
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0.00 PPG

Eastvale Community Park, Full Size Field 12 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 6–0 (expected goals 6.8 for, 0.9 against · 2.95 expected points)

Season so farEMPIRE SCBOCA OC (2)
Position1st13th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-00-0-3
Points per game3.000.00
Goals for / game3.40.7
Goals against / game0.87.7
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L
Biggest win5–0 at Reds FC 2—
Worst loss—1–9 at Rangers FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.68-3.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.01+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    BOCA OC (2) average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 1 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    BOCA OC (2) concede 7.7/game; worst result 1–9 at Rangers FC 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 98% chance; likely score 6–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    BOCA OC (2) have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the BOCA OC (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (EMPIRE SC – BOCA OC (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1
Loss
2.50 PPG
2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

11% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 11%
  2. 2nd 29%
  3. 3rd 58%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link EMPIRE SC to BOCA OC (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
0 favour them
+10.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 1–3 5–0 3–2 1–0 2–3 9–1 5–0 0–2 4–2 2–1 1–1 2–1 9–1 4–2 2–0 10–0 EMPIRE SC 1st Elite FC 2 10th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Reds FC 2 12th Zeta Academy 8th Chula Vista FC 2 3rd Crusaders SC 4th Rangers FC 2 5th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 11th BOCA OC (2) 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.33 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
6–0 2.95 2.99 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
02:25 PM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.85 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:10 PM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
1–1 1.63 2.69 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 2.48 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.59 2.49 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Away
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
3–1 2.39 2.48 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
3–0 2.69 2.50 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
11:25 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.52 2.50 Bank it
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.20 2.41 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.46 2.41 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
3–1 2.56 2.42 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–1 2.77 2.44 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.69 2.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 2.44 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
01:45 PM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
5–1 2.90 2.46 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.25 2.45 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.88 2.42 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 2.36 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Home
Eastvale Community Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.87 2.38 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 5500 174+13 153.00 WWWWW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.5
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 7610 355+30 192.71 WWWWD +0.02 -0.52 100% 1.4
3 Chula Vista FC 2 7511 347+27 162.29 LWWWD +0.01 -0.49 100% 2.1
4 Crusaders SC 8503 177+10 151.88 WWLWW -1.10 +0.29 46% 4.8
5 Rangers FC 2 6312 1914+5 101.67 WWLWL -0.30 -0.11 37% 5.1
6 AC Brea (2) 2101 48-4 31.50 LW +0.99 -0.17 3% 7.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1014-4 91.29 LLWWL +0.93 -0.56 12% 6.0
8 Zeta Academy 6204 917-8 61.00 LWLLL +1.16 -0.47 2% 7.7
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 317-14 31.00 WLL +0.74 -0.04 0% 11.3
10 Elite FC 2 6114 719-12 40.67 WLLLL +1.32 -0.48 0% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6105 1223-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.25 -0.13 0% 9.8
12 Reds FC 2 6105 617-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.02 -0.03 0% 10.8
13 BOCA OC (2) 3003 223-21 00.00 LLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.