ALBION SC San Diego (1)

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Hickman Fields, Hickman #1 11 v 11 ↗

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.3 for, 1.5 against · 2.34 expected points)

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 1–0; they 0–3. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 1–4; they 0–12. Reds FC 2 — we 2–0; they 3–2.

• They struggle to score
  FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 2 of 3.

  A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) concede 5.7/game; worst result 0–12 vs Chula Vista FC 2.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Rayados Academy San Diego.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Expected win — the trap is complacency
  Model gives a 73% chance; likely score 3–1.

  Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

• Early kickoff
  Game time 09:00 AM.

  Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

• What a win does
  AC Brea (2) sit 6th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.29.

  A win moves us above AC Brea (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC San Diego (1) – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th 12%
5. 5th 20%
6. 6th 35%
7. 7th 20%
8. 8th 8%
9. 9th 3%
10. 10th 1%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th
13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).