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Elite FC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U15 · 13 teams · SoCal Elite FC (all teams)

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10th
1-1-4 record · 6 played
0.67 points per game
-12 goal diff · 7–19
WLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
+1.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:55 PM

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Elite FC 2
10th · 0.67 PPG
at
Zeta Academy
8th · 1.00 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Portola Springs B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.8 for, 2.4 against · 1.08 expected points)

Season so farElite FC 2Zeta Academy
Position10th8th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-42-0-4
Points per game0.671.00
Goals for / game1.21.5
Goals against / game3.22.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L L L WL L L W L
Biggest win2–1 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 23–0 vs Reds FC 2
Worst loss1–8 at Rayados Academy San Diego1–7 vs Rayados Academy San Diego
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.94-0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.32+1.16

Common opponents: EMPIRE SC — we 0–3; they 2–4. Rayados Academy San Diego — we 1–8; they 1–7. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 2–3; they 0–3. Crusaders SC — we 1–3; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at EMPIRE SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Zeta Academy have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:55 PM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) sit 9th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.67.

    A win moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Zeta Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Elite FC 2 – Zeta Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.57 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
8th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 1
Draw
0.71 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2
Loss
0.57 PPG
10th— holds 10th— holds 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 19%
  9. 9th 28%
  10. 10th 21%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 5%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+2.33) 3rd (2.38) 68 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.71 (+2.04) 1st (2.63) 62 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 60 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Chula Vista FC 2 2.29 (+1.62) 2nd (2.45) 51 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Crusaders SC 1.88 (+1.21) 4th (1.70) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
5 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+1.00) 5th (1.66) 37 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 AC Brea (2) 1.50 (+0.83) 7th (1.27) 32 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+0.62) 6th (1.50) 27 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
8 Zeta Academy 1.00 (+0.33) 8th (1.24) Win next game
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 1.00 (+0.33) 12th (0.73) Win next game

How the results connect

21 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Elite FC 2 to Zeta Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
13 favour them
-0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–8 7–1 0–3 4–2 2–3 3–0 1–3 1–2 0–2 5–0 0–3 3–2 2–1 1–1 1–6 0–1 3–2 3–0 Elite FC 2 10th Rayados Academy San… 2nd EMPIRE SC 1st Chula Vista FC 2 3rd Crusaders SC 4th Rangers FC 2 5th Reds FC 2 12th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Zeta Academy 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.48 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:55 PM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.08 0.73 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:15 PM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Home
Ruben S. Ayala Park · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
31%
1–1 1.14 0.78 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:45 PM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–1 2.12 0.93 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
Orange County Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.41 0.97 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:15 PM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Home
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 1.01 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.86 1.00 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.21 1.01 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
2–2 1.03 1.01 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.97 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 2.00 1.04 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.16 0.99 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–4 0.12 0.94 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.77 0.93 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 0.95 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 0.95 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.39 1.01 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.69 1.04 Swing game
Tue May 25
11:15 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Away
South Fontana
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.68 1.07 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 5500 174+13 153.00 WWWWW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.5
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 7610 355+30 192.71 WWWWD +0.02 -0.52 100% 1.4
3 Chula Vista FC 2 7511 347+27 162.29 LWWWD +0.01 -0.49 100% 2.1
4 Crusaders SC 8503 177+10 151.88 WWLWW -1.10 +0.29 46% 4.8
5 Rangers FC 2 6312 1914+5 101.67 WWLWL -0.30 -0.11 37% 5.1
6 AC Brea (2) 2101 48-4 31.50 LW +0.99 -0.17 3% 7.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1014-4 91.29 LLWWL +0.93 -0.56 12% 6.0
8 Zeta Academy 6204 917-8 61.00 LWLLL +1.16 -0.47 2% 7.7
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 317-14 31.00 WLL +0.74 -0.04 0% 11.3
10 Elite FC 2 6114 719-12 40.67 WLLLL +1.32 -0.48 0% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6105 1223-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.25 -0.13 0% 9.8
12 Reds FC 2 6105 617-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.02 -0.03 0% 10.8
13 BOCA OC (2) 3003 223-21 00.00 LLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.