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AC Brea (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U15 · 13 teams · AC Brea (all teams)

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6th
1-0-1 record · 2 played
1.50 points per game
-4 goal diff · 4–8
LWlast 2
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.6
+0.99 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 10:55 AM

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AC Brea (2)
6th · 1.50 PPG
at
Crusaders SC
4th · 1.88 PPG

Pershing Middle School, Pershing MS Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.3 for, 2.6 against · 0.66 expected points)

Season so farAC Brea (2)Crusaders SC
Position6th4th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-15-0-3
Points per game1.501.88
Goals for / game2.02.1
Goals against / game4.00.9
Clean sheets04
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W LW W L W W
Biggest win4–2 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana 25–0 at BOCA OC (2)
Worst loss0–6 vs Rayados Academy San Diego0–3 at Rangers FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.63+0.65
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.99-1.10

Common opponents: ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 4–2; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Crusaders SC concede only 0.9/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–6 vs Rayados Academy San Diego.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 16%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:55 AM at Pershing Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Rangers FC 2 sit 5th on 1.67 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Rangers FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Crusaders SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AC Brea (2) – Crusaders SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG
4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2 4th▲ up 2
Draw
1.33 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
7th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
7.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 26%
  8. 8th 25%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+1.50) 3rd (2.38) 69 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.71 (+1.21) 1st (2.63) 63 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection
3 Chula Vista FC 2 2.29 (+0.79) 2nd (2.45) 52 of 66 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
4 Crusaders SC 1.88 (+0.38) 4th (1.70) A point next game
5 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+0.17) 5th (1.66) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link AC Brea (2) to Crusaders SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
5 favour them
-0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–2 0–3 1–2 1–3 0–6 7–1 2–1 8–1 3–0 1–0 6–1 3–0 9–1 0–5 3–0 AC Brea (2) 6th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 11th Rayados Academy San… 2nd Elite FC 2 10th Zeta Academy 8th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th Rangers FC 2 5th BOCA OC (2) 13th Crusaders SC 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
10:55 AM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Away
Pershing Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.66 1.22 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:05 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 1.40 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–4 0.25 1.17 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:15 PM
Elite FC 2
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Away
Rosetta Canyon Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 1.22 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Away
Eastvale Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.31 1.09 Upside
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.49 1.02 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.27 1.16 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
09:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.61 1.20 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–2 1.79 1.25 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.28 1.26 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
5–1 2.61 1.36 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.34 1.36 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–5 0.10 1.28 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.44 1.29 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.73 1.25 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.89 1.23 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
2–2 1.64 1.25 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.14 1.20 Upside
Sun May 23
03:15 PM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Grass - Whittier College · grass
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–3 1.04 1.19 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Track Field)
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
4–2 2.38 1.25 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.05 1.24 Upside
Sat May 29
12:30 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.96 1.27 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 5500 174+13 153.00 WWWWW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.5
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 7610 355+30 192.71 WWWWD +0.02 -0.52 100% 1.4
3 Chula Vista FC 2 7511 347+27 162.29 LWWWD +0.01 -0.49 100% 2.2
4 Crusaders SC 8503 177+10 151.88 WWLWW -1.10 +0.29 47% 4.8
5 Rangers FC 2 6312 1914+5 101.67 WWLWL -0.30 -0.11 39% 5.0
6 AC Brea (2) 2101 48-4 31.50 LW +0.99 -0.17 3% 7.6
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1014-4 91.29 LLWWL +0.93 -0.56 11% 6.1
8 Zeta Academy 6204 917-8 61.00 LWLLL +1.16 -0.47 1% 7.8
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 317-14 31.00 WLL +0.74 -0.04 0% 11.3
10 Elite FC 2 6114 719-12 40.67 WLLLL +1.32 -0.48 0% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6105 1223-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.25 -0.13 0% 9.8
12 Reds FC 2 6105 617-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.02 -0.03 0% 10.7
13 BOCA OC (2) 3003 223-21 00.00 LLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 12.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.