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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U15 · 13 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

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11th
1-0-5 record · 6 played
0.50 points per game
-11 goal diff · 12–23
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.8
+0.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:25 AM

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ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 0.50 PPG
vs

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.8 for, 2.3 against · 2.10 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa Ana 2FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Position11th9th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-51-0-2
Points per game0.501.00
Goals for / game2.01.0
Goals against / game3.85.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless32
Form (recent first)L L L W LL L W
Biggest win9–1 vs BOCA OC (2)3–2 vs Reds FC 2
Worst loss0–10 at Chula Vista FC 20–12 vs Chula Vista FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.05-2.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.25+0.74

Common opponents: Crusaders SC — we 0–3; they 0–3. Chula Vista FC 2 — we 0–10; they 0–12.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.6); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) concede 5.7/game; worst result 0–12 vs Chula Vista FC 2.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–3 at Rayados Academy San Diego, 0–3 at Crusaders SC, 0–10 at Chula Vista FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 14% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Elite FC 2 sit 10th on 0.67 PPG; we are on 0.50.

    A point moves us above Elite FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 – FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.86 PPG
9th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1
Win
0.86 PPG
9th▲ up 2 9th▲ up 2 10th▲ up 1
Draw
0.57 PPG
11th— holds 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2
Loss
0.43 PPG
12th▼ down 1 11th— holds 13th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 9th if every rival drops points, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 22%
  10. 10th 30%
  11. 11th 19%
  12. 12th 11%
  13. 13th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+2.50) 3rd (2.38) 69 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.71 (+2.21) 1st (2.63) 63 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 61 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Chula Vista FC 2 2.29 (+1.79) 2nd (2.45) 52 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Crusaders SC 1.88 (+1.38) 4th (1.70) 43 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Rangers FC 2 1.67 (+1.17) 5th (1.66) 38 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
6 AC Brea (2) 1.50 (+1.00) 7th (1.27) 33 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 1.29 (+0.79) 6th (1.50) 28 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
8 Zeta Academy 1.00 (+0.50) 8th (1.24) 21 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 1.00 (+0.50) 12th (0.73) 21 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
10 Elite FC 2 0.67 (+0.17) 9th (1.07) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 to FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
2 even
1 favour them
+3.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 3–0 0–10 12–0 1–2 1–3 2–0 2–3 9–1 0–5 0–3 2–2 2–3 ALBION SC Santa Ana… 11th Crusaders SC 4th Chula Vista FC 2 3rd Elite FC 2 10th BOCA OC (2) 13th Rayados Academy San… 2nd Reds FC 2 12th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 6th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
11:25 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.10 0.73 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:25 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–2 1.16 0.78 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:55 PM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Away
Portola Springs Community Park
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–2 1.09 0.82 Upside
Sat Nov 21
02:25 PM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away
Fullerton College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
2–4 0.57 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–5 0.13 0.73 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.61 0.81 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
11:25 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.38 0.77 Upside
Sun Mar 14
01:45 PM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
4–2 2.22 0.88 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
Crusaders SC
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +10
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.75 0.87 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.77 0.92 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
4%
1–5 0.18 0.88 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–4 0.23 0.84 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.38 0.87 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
3–2 1.76 0.92 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–2 0.88 0.91 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.42 0.94 Upside
Sat May 8
12:00 PM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.85 0.93 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
Portola Springs Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
2–2 1.46 0.96 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 5500 174+13 153.00 WWWWW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.5
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 7610 355+30 192.71 WWWWD +0.02 -0.52 100% 1.4
3 Chula Vista FC 2 7511 347+27 162.29 LWWWD +0.01 -0.49 100% 2.2
4 Crusaders SC 8503 177+10 151.88 WWLWW -1.10 +0.29 46% 4.8
5 Rangers FC 2 6312 1914+5 101.67 WWLWL -0.30 -0.11 38% 5.0
6 AC Brea (2) 2101 48-4 31.50 LW +0.99 -0.17 2% 7.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1014-4 91.29 LLWWL +0.93 -0.56 12% 6.1
8 Zeta Academy 6204 917-8 61.00 LWLLL +1.16 -0.47 1% 7.7
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 317-14 31.00 WLL +0.74 -0.04 0% 11.3
10 Elite FC 2 6114 719-12 40.67 WLLLL +1.32 -0.48 0% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6105 1223-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.25 -0.13 0% 9.8
12 Reds FC 2 6105 617-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.02 -0.03 0% 10.8
13 BOCA OC (2) 3003 223-21 00.00 LLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.