TableChase Clubs

Crusaders SC

Elite Academy League 2 · SD / OC / IE U15 · 13 teams · Crusaders SC (all teams)

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4th
5-0-3 record · 8 played
1.88 points per game
+10 goal diff · 17–7
WWLWWlast 5
46% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8
-1.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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Crusaders SC
4th · 1.88 PPG
at
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 2.29 PPG

Hoover High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.1 for, 2.6 against · 0.62 expected points)

Season so farCrusaders SCChula Vista FC 2
Position4th3rd
Record (W-D-L)5-0-35-1-1
Points per game1.882.29
Goals for / game2.14.9
Goals against / game0.91.0
Clean sheets43
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W W L W WD W W W L
Biggest win5–0 at BOCA OC (2)12–0 at FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
Worst loss0–3 at Rangers FC 20–2 vs EMPIRE SC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.65+2.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.10+0.01

Common opponents: ALBION SC San Diego (1) — we 0–1; they 4–1. Zeta Academy — we 1–2; they 3–0. FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) — we 3–0; they 12–0. ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 — we 3–0; they 10–0. Elite FC 2 — we 3–1; they 3–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Chula Vista FC 2 score 4.9/game — well above the league's 2.6.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Chula Vista FC 2 concede only 1.0/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1), 0–3 at Rangers FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (17%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at Hoover High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Chula Vista FC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Crusaders SC – Chula Vista FC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.67 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.78 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.67 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
46% top 4
54% below the top 4
4.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 45%
  5. 5th 33%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 EMPIRE SC 3.00 (+1.12) 3rd (2.38) 57 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 2.71 (+0.83) 1st (2.63) 51 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Chula Vista FC 2 2.29 (+0.41) 2nd (2.45) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection

How the results connect

24 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Crusaders SC to Chula Vista FC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
2 even
19 favour them
-4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 2–3 1–2 0–3 0–1 1–4 3–0 0–10 3–0 0–12 0–3 2–2 2–3 2–0 0–3 2–0 0–5 1–2 2–4 0–2 Crusaders SC 4th Elite FC 2 10th Zeta Academy 8th ALBION SC San Diego… 7th ALBION SC Santa Ana… 11th FLYTE SC- Inland Em… 9th Reds FC 2 12th Rayados Academy San… 2nd EMPIRE SC 1st Chula Vista FC 2 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 5 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 1st hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Away
Hoover High School · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–2 0.62 1.74 Upside
Sat Oct 31
10:55 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.17 1.78 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
01:10 PM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Home
Pershing Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.13 1.72 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
7th · 3-0-4 · GD -4
Away
Hickman Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
1–1 1.66 1.72 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
12:00 AM
BOCA OC (2)
13th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.80 1.80 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM
Zeta Academy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD -8
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.90 1.81 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2)
9th · 1-0-2 · GD -14
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.42 1.85 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana 2
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.07 1.86 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.70 1.79 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Rangers FC 2
5th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.76 1.79 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM
Reds FC 2
12th · 1-0-5 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
2–0 2.34 1.82 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM
Elite FC 2
10th · 1-1-4 · GD -12
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 2.03 1.83 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Chula Vista FC 2
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +27
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.83 1.78 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
AC Brea (2)
6th · 1-0-1 · GD -4
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
2–1 1.92 1.79 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
EMPIRE SC
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–1 0.90 1.75 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Rayados Academy San Diego
2nd · 6-1-0 · GD +30
Away
SONIA SOTOMAYOR ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
●●●●● Very tough
12%
0–2 0.51 1.70 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 EMPIRE SC 5500 174+13 153.00 WWWWW -0.01 -0.33 100% 2.5
2 Rayados Academy San Diego 7610 355+30 192.71 WWWWD +0.02 -0.52 100% 1.4
3 Chula Vista FC 2 7511 347+27 162.29 LWWWD +0.01 -0.49 100% 2.1
4 Crusaders SC 8503 177+10 151.88 WWLWW -1.10 +0.29 46% 4.8
5 Rangers FC 2 6312 1914+5 101.67 WWLWL -0.30 -0.11 37% 5.1
6 AC Brea (2) 2101 48-4 31.50 LW +0.99 -0.17 3% 7.7
7 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 7304 1014-4 91.29 LLWWL +0.93 -0.56 12% 6.0
8 Zeta Academy 6204 917-8 61.00 LWLLL +1.16 -0.47 2% 7.7
9 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (2) 3102 317-14 31.00 WLL +0.74 -0.04 0% 11.3
10 Elite FC 2 6114 719-12 40.67 WLLLL +1.32 -0.48 0% 9.0
11 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2 6105 1223-11 30.50 LWLLL +0.25 -0.13 0% 9.8
12 Reds FC 2 6105 617-11 30.50 LLLLW +0.02 -0.03 0% 10.8
13 BOCA OC (2) 3003 223-21 00.00 LLL +0.00 +0.18 0% 12.9

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.