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Valley United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · North U12 · 14 teams · Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+0 goal diff · 11–11
WWLLlast 4
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.2
+1.04 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:55 PM

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Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 1.50 PPG
vs
TFA-SGV
4th · 2.00 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Artinian ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.1 against · 1.32 expected points)

Season so farValley United Soccer ClubTFA-SGV
Position8th4th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-23-1-1
Points per game1.502.00
Goals for / game2.82.2
Goals against / game2.81.0
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)L L W WD W L W W
Biggest win4–1 vs Downey United Football Club3–0 at LAIFC (2)
Worst loss2–6 at Bell Gardens Football Club1–2 vs LA Surf SC SFV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.17+0.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.04-0.76

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    TFA-SGV concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Oaks FC 2 sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Oaks FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the TFA-SGV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valley United Soccer Club – TFA-SGV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3
Win
1.80 PPG		 5th▲ up 3 6th▲ up 2 8th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 9th▼ down 1 8th— holds 11th▼ down 3
Loss
1.20 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
7.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 17%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Autobahn SA 2.40 (+0.90) 2nd (2.15) 52 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (1.80) 50 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.25 (+0.75) 1st (2.18) 48 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 2.00 (+0.50) 5th (1.71) 42 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
5 FC Man United 1.80 (+0.30) 6th (1.64) Win next game
6 Views FC 1.75 (+0.25) 4th (1.76) A point next game
7 Oaks FC 2 1.50 (+0.00) 7th (1.56) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Valley United Soccer Club to TFA-SGV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 favour them
+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–1 3–2 0–0 6–1 1–4 2–6 5–5 2–3 4–1 9–0 0–3 Valley United Socce… 8th Oaks FC 2 7th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd Downey United Footb… 3rd FC Golden State For… 10th Culver City Footbal… 12th Views FC 6th LAIFC (2) 13th TFA-SGV 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 13th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 17
10:30 AM
no score posted		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
Del Mar 9 v 9		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.65 1.53 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
05:55 PM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–2 1.32 1.50 Upside
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 3–3 1.44 1.49 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:30 PM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Away
Fremont Park, Glendale		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.48 1.61 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
12:15 PM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.57 1.61 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
02:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
Valley United Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–3 0.99 1.55 Upside
Sun Dec 6
10:30 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 4–2 2.14 1.60 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
09:30 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Away
Talley Fields		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.54 1.59 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 4–1 2.44 1.66 Bank it
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 2–4 0.61 1.58 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.20 1.56 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–4 0.73 1.51 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–2 1.99 1.54 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.36 1.53 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–2 1.03 1.50 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 2–3 1.07 1.48 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 4–1 2.67 1.54 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.25 1.52 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–3 1.34 1.51 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 3–2 1.80 1.53 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Autobahn SA 5401 2413+11 122.40 WWWWL +0.38 -0.24 96% 2.0
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 3210 149+5 72.33 WDW -0.02 -0.08 55% 4.6
3 Downey United Football Club 4301 207+13 92.25 LWWW -0.36 -0.12 96% 1.8
4 TFA-SGV 5311 115+6 102.00 WWLWD -0.76 +0.13 38% 5.5
5 FC Man United 5302 2115+6 91.80 LLWWW -0.87 +0.12 28% 6.0
6 Views FC 4211 1610+6 71.75 WDLW -0.47 -0.01 47% 5.0
7 Oaks FC 2 4202 109+1 61.50 LWLW -0.04 -0.03 16% 6.8
8 Valley United Soccer Club 4202 1111+0 61.50 WWLL +1.04 -0.13 15% 7.2
9 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 37-4 31.50 WL +0.55 -0.00 0% 10.2
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 3111 65+1 41.33 LWD -0.11 -0.02 8% 7.8
11 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3102 711-4 31.00 LWL +1.05 -0.12 1% 9.6
12 Culver City Football Club 4013 618-12 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.20 0% 13.0
13 LAIFC (2) 5014 223-21 10.20 DLLLL +0.43 +0.14 0% 13.8
14 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3003 715-8 00.00 LLL +0.75 -0.03 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.