TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · North U12 · 14 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 19 hours ago.
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4th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+6 goal diff · 11–5
WWLWDlast 5
38% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4
-0.76 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:55 PM

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TFA-SGV
4th · 2.00 PPG
at
Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 1.50 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Artinian ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.9 against · 1.47 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVValley United Soccer Club
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-12-0-2
Points per game2.001.50
Goals for / game2.22.8
Goals against / game1.02.8
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D W L W WL L W W
Biggest win3–0 at LAIFC (2)4–1 vs Downey United Football Club
Worst loss1–2 vs LA Surf SC SFV2–6 at Bell Gardens Football Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.53+0.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.76+1.04

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs FC Golden State Force (2).

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 42% / draw 21% / loss 37%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:55 PM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.17 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.17 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.83 PPG		 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.67 PPG		 7th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 6

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
38% top 4
62% below the top 4
5.4 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 18%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 12%
  8. 8th 10%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 3%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Autobahn SA 2.40 (+0.40) 2nd (2.15) 53 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.33 (+0.33) 3rd (1.80) 51 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.25 (+0.25) 1st (2.18) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection

How the results connect

4 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 favour them
-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–0 2–3 1–3 4–1 1–6 3–2 5–5 6–2 3–0 0–9 1–4 TFA-SGV 4th FC Golden State For… 10th Culver City Footbal… 12th Views FC 6th LAIFC (2) 13th Oaks FC 2 7th Bell Gardens Footba… 2nd Downey United Footb… 3rd Valley United Socce… 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 3rd hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:55 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–1 1.47 1.91 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
06:00 PM		 Autobahn SA
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
Lincoln Middle Schol		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–2 1.02 1.78 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:15 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–2 1.67 1.77 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.60 1.75 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
09:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Home
Azusa High School · grass		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.02 1.78 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.43 1.75 Upside
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.89 1.68 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.83 1.69 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.66 1.76 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.25 1.79 Bank it
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.25 1.82 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.57 1.80 Swing game
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.46 1.78 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.77 1.78 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.33 1.76 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.35 1.74 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 2–2 1.28 1.72 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 1.72 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
50%		 2–1 1.72 1.72 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.17 1.70 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Away
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.97 1.71 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Autobahn SA 5401 2413+11 122.40 WWWWL +0.38 -0.24 95% 2.0
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 3210 149+5 72.33 WDW -0.02 -0.08 54% 4.6
3 Downey United Football Club 4301 207+13 92.25 LWWW -0.36 -0.12 97% 1.8
4 TFA-SGV 5311 115+6 102.00 WWLWD -0.76 +0.13 38% 5.4
5 FC Man United 5302 2115+6 91.80 LLWWW -0.87 +0.12 29% 6.0
6 Views FC 4211 1610+6 71.75 WDLW -0.47 -0.01 48% 5.0
7 Oaks FC 2 4202 109+1 61.50 LWLW -0.04 -0.03 15% 7.0
8 Valley United Soccer Club 4202 1111+0 61.50 WWLL +1.04 -0.13 14% 7.2
9 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 37-4 31.50 WL +0.55 -0.00 1% 10.2
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 3111 65+1 41.33 LWD -0.11 -0.02 9% 7.8
11 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3102 711-4 31.00 LWL +1.05 -0.12 1% 9.6
12 Culver City Football Club 4013 618-12 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.20 0% 13.0
13 LAIFC (2) 5014 223-21 10.20 DLLLL +0.43 +0.14 0% 13.8
14 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3003 715-8 00.00 LLL +0.75 -0.03 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.