TableChase Clubs

Downey United Football Club

Elite Academy League 2 · North U12 · 14 teams · Downey United Football Club (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+13 goal diff · 20–7
LWWWlast 4
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:15 AM

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Downey United Football Club
3rd · 2.25 PPG
at
FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1.33 PPG

Azusa High School, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.1 for, 2.1 against · 1.92 expected points)

Season so farDowney United Football ClubFC Golden State Force (2)
Position3rd10th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-1-1
Points per game2.251.33
Goals for / game5.02.0
Goals against / game1.81.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W W LD W L
Biggest win9–0 vs LAIFC (2)4–2 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club
Worst loss1–4 at Valley United Soccer Club2–3 vs Oaks FC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.77+0.14
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.36-0.11

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 16% / loss 25%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:15 AM at Azusa High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Bell Gardens Football Club sit 2nd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A point moves us above Bell Gardens Football Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Downey United Football Club – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Win
2.40 PPG		 1st▲ up 2 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 3 7th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

50% finish 1st
96% top 4
4% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 50%
  2. 2nd 31%
  3. 3rd 11%
  4. 4th 4%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 22 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Autobahn SA 2.40 (+0.15) 2nd (2.15) Win next game
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.33 (+0.08) 3rd (1.80) A point next game

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Downey United Football Club to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+4.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–4 3–1 3–2 6–3 8–3 2–4 9–0 0–3 0–0 3–0 Downey United Footb… 3rd Valley United Socce… 8th Autobahn SA 1st LAIFC (2) 13th Oaks FC 2 7th Oxnard United Socce… 14th TFA-SGV 4th FC Golden State For… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 11th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:15 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Away
Azusa High School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
58%		 3–2 1.92 2.18 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 5–2 2.68 2.27 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
10:25 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
El Marino Elementary		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 5–1 2.68 2.32 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
04:30 PM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 4–2 2.19 2.31 Swing game
Sun Dec 6
04:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 4–2 2.08 2.28 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–3 1.75 2.23 Swing game
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.89 2.20 Swing game
Sun Jan 17
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
59%		 2–1 1.94 2.18 Swing game
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 4–2 2.27 2.18 Bank it
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 4–2 2.23 2.19 Bank it
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 2.21 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.82 2.25 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 3–3 1.43 2.20 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–1 2.22 2.20 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0-0-3 · GD -8		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 4–2 2.46 2.22 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 6–1 2.82 2.25 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 3–3 1.83 2.23 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
02:45 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
Malibu Bluffs Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 3–2 1.72 2.20 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 4–2 2.12 2.20 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–2 2.20 2.20 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.63 2.18 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
Citrus College		 ●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 4–2 2.32 2.18 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Autobahn SA 5401 2413+11 122.40 WWWWL +0.38 -0.24 95% 2.0
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 3210 149+5 72.33 WDW -0.02 -0.08 54% 4.6
3 Downey United Football Club 4301 207+13 92.25 LWWW -0.36 -0.12 96% 1.8
4 TFA-SGV 5311 115+6 102.00 WWLWD -0.76 +0.13 37% 5.5
5 FC Man United 5302 2115+6 91.80 LLWWW -0.87 +0.12 29% 6.0
6 Views FC 4211 1610+6 71.75 WDLW -0.47 -0.01 47% 4.9
7 Oaks FC 2 4202 109+1 61.50 LWLW -0.04 -0.03 17% 6.8
8 Valley United Soccer Club 4202 1111+0 61.50 WWLL +1.04 -0.13 14% 7.2
9 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 37-4 31.50 WL +0.55 -0.00 1% 10.2
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 3111 65+1 41.33 LWD -0.11 -0.02 9% 7.8
11 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3102 711-4 31.00 LWL +1.05 -0.12 1% 9.6
12 Culver City Football Club 4013 618-12 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.20 0% 13.0
13 LAIFC (2) 5014 223-21 10.20 DLLLL +0.43 +0.14 0% 13.8
14 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3003 715-8 00.00 LLL +0.75 -0.03 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.