TableChase Clubs

Oxnard United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · North U12 · 14 teams · Oxnard United Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
0-0-3 record · 3 played
0.00 points per game
-8 goal diff · 7–15
LLLlast 3
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.6
+0.75 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:20 AM

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Oxnard United Soccer Club
14th · 0.00 PPG
at
FC Man United
5th · 1.80 PPG

Walnut Ranch Park, Field #2-9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.7 for, 5.0 against · 0.56 expected points)

Season so farOxnard United Soccer ClubFC Man United
Position14th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-33-0-2
Points per game0.001.80
Goals for / game2.34.2
Goals against / game5.03.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L LW W W L L
Biggest win—5–0 vs LAIFC (2)
Worst loss3–8 vs Autobahn SA2–7 at Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.06+0.57
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.75-0.87

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 3–8; they 2–7.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    FC Man United score 4.2/game — well above the league's 2.9.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Man United have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:20 AM at Walnut Ranch Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    LAIFC (2) sit 13th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above LAIFC (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Man United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oxnard United Soccer Club – FC Man United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Win
0.75 PPG		 12th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 2
Draw
0.25 PPG		 12th▲ up 2 12th▲ up 2 13th▲ up 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 20%
  12. 12th 55%
  13. 13th 11%
  14. 14th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 23 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Autobahn SA 2.40 (+2.40) 2nd (2.15) 63 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 56 for their projection
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (1.80) 61 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
3 Downey United Football Club 2.25 (+2.25) 1st (2.18) 59 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.71) 52 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 45 for their projection
5 FC Man United 1.80 (+1.80) 6th (1.64) 47 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
6 Views FC 1.75 (+1.75) 4th (1.76) 46 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
7 Oaks FC 2 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.56) 39 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
8 Valley United Soccer Club 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.53) 39 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
9 LA Surf SC SFV 1.50 (+1.50) 11th (1.17) 39 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.47) 35 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
11 Central Coast Surf Soccer 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.24) 26 of 69 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
12 Culver City Football Club 0.25 (+0.25) 13th (0.57) A point next game
13 LAIFC (2) 0.20 (+0.20) 14th (0.33) Already ahead

How the results connect

1 chain · 3 teams

Paths of results that link Oxnard United Soccer Club to FC Man United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–8 7–2 Oxnard United Socce… 14th Autobahn SA 1st FC Man United 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 14th Sep 13 Sep 26 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 8th hardest of 14

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 27
09:00 AM
no score posted		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 3–2 1.48 0.37 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
10:20 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Away
Walnut Ranch Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.56 0.41 Upside
Sun Nov 8
04:30 PM		 Downey United Football Club
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Away
Rancho Los Amigos Sports Center		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 2–5 0.26 0.38 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.42 0.67 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 4–2 2.03 0.84 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
19%		 2–3 0.71 0.83 Upside
Sun Dec 6
10:30 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–4 0.73 0.82 Upside
Sun Jan 10
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–3 0.99 0.84 Upside
Sun Jan 17
01:30 PM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
Malibu Bluffs Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 2–4 0.50 0.81 Upside
Sun Jan 24
12:00 AM		 Bell Gardens Football Club
2nd · 2-1-0 · GD +5		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–4 0.80 0.81 Upside
Sun Jan 31
12:00 AM		 Autobahn SA
1st · 4-0-1 · GD +11		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 2–5 0.33 0.77 Upside
Sun Feb 7
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
9th · 1-0-1 · GD -4		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–3 1.12 0.80 Upside
Sun Feb 14
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 0.78 Upside
Sun Feb 21
12:00 AM		 FC Golden State Force (2)
10th · 1-1-1 · GD +1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–3 1.07 0.80 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
5th · 3-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 3–4 0.87 0.80 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Downey United Football Club
3rd · 3-0-1 · GD +13		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 2–4 0.44 0.79 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:00 AM		 Culver City Football Club
12th · 0-1-3 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.67 0.83 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +1		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–3 1.01 0.84 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–3 1.05 0.85 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 LAIFC (2)
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -21		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 3–1 2.16 0.90 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
11th · 1-0-2 · GD -4		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.35 0.92 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Views FC
6th · 2-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–4 0.79 0.92 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +6		 Home
Rio Vista Middle School		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.86 0.92 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Autobahn SA 5401 2413+11 122.40 WWWWL +0.38 -0.24 96% 2.0
2 Bell Gardens Football Club 3210 149+5 72.33 WDW -0.02 -0.08 55% 4.6
3 Downey United Football Club 4301 207+13 92.25 LWWW -0.36 -0.12 96% 1.8
4 TFA-SGV 5311 115+6 102.00 WWLWD -0.76 +0.13 38% 5.5
5 FC Man United 5302 2115+6 91.80 LLWWW -0.87 +0.12 28% 6.0
6 Views FC 4211 1610+6 71.75 WDLW -0.47 -0.01 47% 5.0
7 Oaks FC 2 4202 109+1 61.50 LWLW -0.04 -0.03 16% 6.8
8 Valley United Soccer Club 4202 1111+0 61.50 WWLL +1.04 -0.13 15% 7.2
9 LA Surf SC SFV 2101 37-4 31.50 WL +0.55 -0.00 0% 10.2
10 FC Golden State Force (2) 3111 65+1 41.33 LWD -0.11 -0.02 8% 7.8
11 Central Coast Surf Soccer 3102 711-4 31.00 LWL +1.05 -0.12 1% 9.6
12 Culver City Football Club 4013 618-12 10.25 DLLL -0.21 +0.20 0% 13.0
13 LAIFC (2) 5014 223-21 10.20 DLLLL +0.43 +0.14 0% 13.8
14 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3003 715-8 00.00 LLL +0.75 -0.03 0% 11.6

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.88 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.