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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U17 · 12 teams · Total Futbol Academy - OC (all teams)

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3rd
3-0-2 record · 5 played
1.80 points per game
+1 goal diff · 13–12
WLLWWlast 5
34% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.4
-0.02 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:50 PM

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Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 1.80 PPG
at

Rio Hondo College, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.3 for, 3.3 against · 0.95 expected points)

Season so farTotal Futbol Academy - OC 2FC Golden State Force (2)
Position3rd2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-23-0-1
Points per game1.802.25
Goals for / game2.63.5
Goals against / game2.42.5
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W L L WW W W L
Biggest win3–0 vs Downey United Football Club6–0 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
Worst loss1–6 at Autobahn SA1–5 at Los Angeles SC 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.05+0.66
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.02+0.34

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 1–6; they 2–1.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 26%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    FC Golden State Force (2) have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:50 PM at Rio Hondo College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Golden State Force (2) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 – FC Golden State Force (2)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
6th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 5
Win
2.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
1.67 PPG
4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 5
Loss
1.50 PPG
6th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
34% top 4
67% below the top 4
5.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 10%
  4. 4th 22%
  5. 5th 22%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 8%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.73 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Los Angeles SC 2 3.00 (+1.20) 1st (2.55) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 FC Golden State Force (2) 2.25 (+0.45) 3rd (1.92) 41 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 to FC Golden State Force (2) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
6 favour them
-3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 1–2 3–0 0–4 10–1 4–5 1–2 2–3 0–3 5–1 1–3 2–3 0–6 3–3 Total Futbol Academ… 3rd Autobahn SA 4th Downey United Footb… 11th City SC Los Angeles… 7th Culver City 10th Los Angeles SC 2 1st Sporting So-Cal Soc… 5th FC Golden State For… 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 7th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:50 PM
FC Golden State Force (2)
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away
Rio Hondo College · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–3 0.95 1.66 Upside
Sun Oct 25
03:10 PM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD -2
Away
Glendale High School · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.36 1.62 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
Culver City
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
4–2 2.29 1.70 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
04:30 PM
Bell Gardens Football Club
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
Hoover High School · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 1.73 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:35 PM
Downey United Football Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -13
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
2–1 2.05 1.76 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
04:50 PM
Bell Gardens Football Club
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Away
JW NORTH Stadium · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.66 1.75 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 1.72 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +14
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
24%
2–3 0.88 1.65 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Pride FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +2
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.19 1.62 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–3 0.64 1.56 Upside
Sat Apr 17
05:00 PM
FC Premier
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
St John Bosco High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
41%
1–1 1.43 1.55 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
FC Golden State Force (2)
2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.28 1.53 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD -2
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.72 1.54 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Culver City
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
4–2 1.95 1.56 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.68 1.57 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
2–1 1.99 1.59 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16
Away
West Covina High School
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.43 1.54 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Los Angeles SC 2 5500 204+16 153.00 WWWWW -0.07 -0.30 100% 1.1
2 FC Golden State Force (2) 4301 1410+4 92.25 LWWW +0.34 -0.24 89% 3.1
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 5302 1312+1 91.80 WLLWW -0.02 -0.08 34% 5.4
4 Autobahn SA 6312 2410+14 101.67 LWLWD -0.10 -0.24 98% 2.4
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6312 1618-2 101.67 LWLWD +0.48 -0.20 32% 5.5
6 Pride FC 4202 1311+2 61.50 LWLW -0.54 +0.03 29% 5.6
7 City SC Los Angeles 2 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.41 +0.03 12% 6.7
8 FC Premier 3102 34-1 31.00 LWL -0.62 +0.06 5% 7.8
9 Bell Gardens Football Club 4103 510-5 30.75 WLLL +0.17 -0.03 1% 9.3
10 Culver City 4103 1124-13 30.75 LLWL +0.44 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Downey United Football Club 6105 417-13 30.50 WLLLL +0.51 -0.08 0% 11.3
12 LAIFC (2) 1001 03-3 00.00 +0.00 +0.01 1% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.