TableChase Clubs

FC Golden State Force (2)

Elite Academy League 2 · LA South U17 · 12 teams · FC Golden State Force (all teams)

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2nd
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+4 goal diff · 14–10
LWWWlast 4
88% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2
+0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:50 PM

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FC Golden State Force (2)
2nd · 2.25 PPG
vs

Rio Hondo College, Stadium ↗ · turf?

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.3 for, 2.3 against · 1.89 expected points)

Season so farFC Golden State Force (2)Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
Position2nd3rd
Record (W-D-L)3-0-13-0-2
Points per game2.251.80
Goals for / game3.52.6
Goals against / game2.52.4
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W LW W L L W
Biggest win6–0 vs Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club3–0 vs Downey United Football Club
Worst loss1–5 at Los Angeles SC 21–6 at Autobahn SA
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.66+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.34-0.02

Common opponents: Autobahn SA — we 2–1; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 16% / loss 26%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Golden State Force (2) – Total Futbol Academy - OC 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–2 win we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
88% top 4
12% below the top 4
3.2 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 26%
  3. 3rd 44%
  4. 4th 16%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 3%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Los Angeles SC 2 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.55) 57 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection

How the results connect

8 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Golden State Force (2) to Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
2 favour them
+3.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–1 6–1 4–0 0–3 5–4 1–10 3–2 2–1 1–5 3–0 3–1 6–0 3–2 3–3 FC Golden State For… 2nd Autobahn SA 4th Culver City 10th Los Angeles SC 2 1st Sporting So-Cal Soc… 5th Downey United Footb… 11th City SC Los Angeles… 7th Total Futbol Academ… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.24 · 10th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 6
04:05 PM
no score posted
Pride FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +2
Away
Los Angeles City College
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
3–2 1.51 2.10 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
01:50 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Home
Rio Hondo College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
3–2 1.89 2.07 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
03:35 PM
Downey United Football Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -13
Away
St. Pius X - St. Matthias Academy (PMA) · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.29 2.10 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
04:50 PM
Bell Gardens Football Club
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.95 2.08 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
04:00 PM
FC Premier
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Away
Fullerton High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–1 1.70 2.04 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
03:10 PM
Pride FC
6th · 2-0-2 · GD +2
Home
Rio Hondo College · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.87 2.02 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM
Los Angeles SC 2
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
1–3 0.85 1.91 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM
Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club
5th · 3-1-2 · GD -2
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–2 1.68 1.89 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM
Autobahn SA
4th · 3-1-2 · GD +14
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.83 1.81 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–1 1.96 1.82 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
12:00 AM
Culver City
10th · 1-0-3 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
5–2 2.54 1.87 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC 2
3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +1
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.54 1.85 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM
Downey United Football Club
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -13
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
80%
3–1 2.51 1.89 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 AM
Bell Gardens Football Club
9th · 1-0-3 · GD -5
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.23 1.91 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM
FC Premier
8th · 1-0-2 · GD -1
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.99 1.91 Swing game
Tue May 25
09:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–1 1.97 1.92 Swing game
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
LAIFC (2)
12th · 0-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 1.93 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
City SC Los Angeles 2
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Lawndale High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.64 1.92 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Los Angeles SC 2 5500 204+16 153.00 WWWWW -0.07 -0.30 100% 1.1
2 FC Golden State Force (2) 4301 1410+4 92.25 LWWW +0.34 -0.24 88% 3.2
3 Total Futbol Academy - OC 2 5302 1312+1 91.80 WLLWW -0.02 -0.08 34% 5.4
4 Autobahn SA 6312 2410+14 101.67 LWLWD -0.10 -0.24 98% 2.4
5 Sporting So-Cal Soccer Club 6312 1618-2 101.67 LWLWD +0.48 -0.20 30% 5.6
6 Pride FC 4202 1311+2 61.50 LWLW -0.54 +0.03 30% 5.6
7 City SC Los Angeles 2 4202 99+0 61.50 WWLL -0.41 +0.03 13% 6.7
8 FC Premier 3102 34-1 31.00 LWL -0.62 +0.06 6% 7.8
9 Bell Gardens Football Club 4103 510-5 30.75 WLLL +0.17 -0.03 1% 9.3
10 Culver City 4103 1124-13 30.75 LLWL +0.44 +0.00 0% 10.4
11 Downey United Football Club 6105 417-13 30.50 WLLLL +0.51 -0.08 0% 11.3
12 LAIFC (2) 1001 03-3 00.00 +0.00 +0.01 1% 9.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.55 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.