TableChase Clubs

Valley United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · Valley United Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
4-3-0 record · 7 played
2.14 points per game
+10 goal diff · 19–9
DWWWWlast 5
71% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 2.14 PPG
vs
Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 1.71 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.9 against · 1.62 expected points)

Season so farValley United Soccer ClubCentral Coast United Soccer Club
Position3rd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-3-04-0-3
Points per game2.141.71
Goals for / game2.73.0
Goals against / game1.31.9
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W W W W DW L L W W
Biggest win5–1 at LA Surf SC SFV6–1 vs LA Surf SC SFV
Worst loss—2–5 at ALBION SC SCV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.98+0.97
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16+0.74

Common opponents: Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 2–2; they 3–1. FC Man United — we 0–0; they 4–0. LA Surf SC SFV — we 5–1; they 6–1. ALBION SC SCV — we 3–0; they 2–5. TFA-SGV — we 3–2; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at FC Man United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 47% / draw 20% / loss 33%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Coast United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valley United Soccer Club – Central Coast United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.25 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.25 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Loss
1.88 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
71% top 4
29% below the top 4
4.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 6%
  3. 3rd 38%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 9%
  7. 7th 3%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3.00 (+0.86) 1st (2.67) 57 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
2 Unico Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.36) 2nd (2.32) 45 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection

How the results connect

27 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Valley United Soccer Club to Central Coast United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
3 even
16 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–6 2–2 1–3 3–2 1–5 0–0 0–4 3–0 5–2 2–3 0–5 2–0 2–2 1–3 4–2 2–8 4–2 1–4 0–3 3–1 Valley United Socce… 3rd LA Surf SC SFV 10th Central Coast Surf … 6th TFA-SGV 4th FC Man United 8th ALBION SC SCV 7th ALBION SC Antelope … 12th Dynamo 9th Unico Futbol Club 2nd Oxnard United Socce… 1st Central Coast Unite… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–1 1.62 2.08 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–0 2.81 2.16 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
Birmingham High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 2.05 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.72 1.93 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Away
Talley Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.43 1.89 Upside
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.17 1.91 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 2–1 2.13 1.93 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.26 1.95 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.61 1.99 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 4–1 2.56 2.02 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.84 2.01 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
48%		 2–1 1.65 1.99 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
95%		 4–0 2.89 2.04 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–2 1.32 2.00 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.83 1.95 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.51 1.89 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Home
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.76 1.93 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7700 364+32 213.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.06 100% 1.1
2 Unico Futbol Club 6501 235+18 152.50 LWWWW +0.07 -0.21 99% 2.1
3 Valley United Soccer Club 7430 199+10 152.14 DWWWW -0.16 -0.02 71% 4.0
4 TFA-SGV 8503 1916+3 151.88 LWWWL -0.17 +0.07 14% 6.2
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7403 2113+8 121.71 WWLLW +0.74 -0.39 65% 4.2
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2113+8 101.67 WLLWW -0.05 -0.07 33% 5.3
7 ALBION SC SCV 8404 2619+7 121.50 WLLLL +0.23 -0.11 18% 5.9
8 FC Man United 7313 1617-1 101.43 WDWLW -0.47 +0.20 1% 8.1
9 Dynamo 7304 1319-6 91.29 LLWWW +0.13 -0.02 0% 8.7
10 LA Surf SC SFV 8206 2032-12 60.75 LLLLL -0.34 +0.40 0% 10.8
11 Oaks FC 2 8206 1439-25 60.75 LWWLL -0.10 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 817-9 40.67 WLLLL +0.40 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 437-33 00.00 LLLLL -0.00 +0.42 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.