TableChase Clubs

Central Coast Surf Soccer

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · Central Coast Surf Soccer (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 21 minutes ago.
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6th
3-1-2 record · 6 played
1.67 points per game
+8 goal diff · 21–13
WLLWWlast 5
35% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.2
-0.05 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 12:00 PM

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Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 1.67 PPG
vs
Dynamo
9th · 1.29 PPG

Talley Fields, Field #2 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.8 against · 2.20 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast Surf SoccerDynamo
Position6th9th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-23-0-4
Points per game1.671.29
Goals for / game3.51.9
Goals against / game2.22.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W L L WW W W L L
Biggest win8–0 vs Central Cal Aztecs 23–0 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
Worst loss1–6 at Oxnard United Soccer Club1–5 vs TFA-SGV
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.82-0.49
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.05+0.13

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 2–4. Oxnard United Soccer Club — we 1–6; they 0–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 6–0; they 3–1.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 14% / loss 17%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • They arrive in form
    Dynamo have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Central Coast United Soccer Club sit 5th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Central Coast United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Dynamo game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast Surf Soccer – Dynamo) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.86 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Win
1.86 PPG		 5th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 2 6th— holds
Draw
1.57 PPG		 6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Loss
1.43 PPG		 8th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 2 9th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
35% top 4
65% below the top 4
5.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 23%
  6. 6th 20%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 5%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.67) 62 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Unico Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.83) 2nd (2.32) 50 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 Valley United Soccer Club 2.14 (+0.47) 3rd (1.93) 42 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 1.88 (+0.21) 7th (1.62) 36 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 1.71 (+0.04) 4th (1.89) A point next game

How the results connect

24 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast Surf Soccer to Dynamo through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

15 favour us
2 even
7 favour them
+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 3–0 2–2 4–2 6–0 1–3 3–8 2–3 3–2 0–3 1–11 0–5 4–1 0–3 1–3 0–2 1–3 6–1 8–0 1–4 0–3 Central Coast Surf … 6th Oxnard United Socce… 1st Valley United Socce… 3rd Oaks FC 2 11th ALBION SC SCV 7th Central Coast Unite… 5th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th LA Surf SC SFV 10th Unico Futbol Club 2nd ALBION SC Antelope … 12th Dynamo 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.07 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
12:00 PM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
69%		 3–1 2.20 1.74 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:30 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 3–1 2.05 1.78 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
12:10 PM		 LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Away
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 4–2 2.26 1.83 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
08:30 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Away
Elings Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.63 1.71 Upside
Sun Nov 8
12:45 PM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3		 Away
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 1.69 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
02:30 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 1.67 Upside
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 5–1 2.82 1.76 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.53 1.67 Upside
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8		 Away
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–2 1.12 1.63 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.34 1.61 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.10 1.64 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.89 1.60 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.59 1.65 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
09:30 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
Talley Fields		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.37 1.69 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–2 1.91 1.70 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–2 1.73 1.70 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 4–2 2.52 1.74 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–2 1.83 1.74 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7700 364+32 213.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.06 100% 1.1
2 Unico Futbol Club 6501 235+18 152.50 LWWWW +0.07 -0.21 99% 2.1
3 Valley United Soccer Club 7430 199+10 152.14 DWWWW -0.16 -0.02 71% 4.0
4 TFA-SGV 8503 1916+3 151.88 LWWWL -0.17 +0.07 13% 6.2
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7403 2113+8 121.71 WWLLW +0.74 -0.39 64% 4.2
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2113+8 101.67 WLLWW -0.05 -0.07 35% 5.2
7 ALBION SC SCV 8404 2619+7 121.50 WLLLL +0.23 -0.11 17% 5.9
8 FC Man United 7313 1617-1 101.43 WDWLW -0.47 +0.20 1% 8.1
9 Dynamo 7304 1319-6 91.29 LLWWW +0.13 -0.02 0% 8.7
10 LA Surf SC SFV 8206 2032-12 60.75 LLLLL -0.34 +0.40 0% 10.8
11 Oaks FC 2 8206 1439-25 60.75 LWWLL -0.10 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 817-9 40.67 WLLLL +0.40 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 437-33 00.00 LLLLL -0.00 +0.42 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.