Oxnard United Soccer Club
Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · Oxnard United Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM
River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 6–1 (expected goals 6.6 for, 1.1 against · 2.93 expected points)
| Season so far | Oxnard United Soccer Club | LA Surf SC SFV |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-0 | 2-0-6 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 4.0 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L L L L |
| Biggest win | 11–1 at Oaks FC 2 | 8–3 at Oaks FC 2 |
| Worst loss | — | 2–8 vs ALBION SC SCV |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +2.95 | -1.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.65 | -0.34 |
Common opponents: Dynamo — we 3–0; they 2–3. Oaks FC 2 — we 11–1; they 8–3. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 1–6. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 4–0; they 5–2. ALBION SC SCV — we 3–0; they 2–8.
Game plan
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They leak goals — be greedy
LA Surf SC SFV concede 4.0/game; worst result 2–8 vs ALBION SC SCV.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 97% chance; likely score 6–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
LA Surf SC SFV have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Oxnard United Soccer Club – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 6–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 91%
- 2nd 9%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th <1%
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
32 chains · 11 teams
Paths of results that link Oxnard United Soccer Club to LA Surf SC SFV through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 9th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM |
LA Surf SC SFV 10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12 |
Home River Ridge Playfields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 97% |
6–1 | 2.93 | 2.99 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 11:00 AM |
TFA-SGV 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3 |
Home River Ridge Playfields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 85% |
3–1 | 2.64 | 2.95 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 05:10 PM |
FC Man United 8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Away Walnut Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.60 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 12:00 AM |
Valley United Soccer Club 3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
2–1 | 2.10 | 2.84 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM |
Oaks FC 2 11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25 |
Home River Ridge Playfields |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
7–0 | 2.97 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 15 08:30 AM |
LA Surf SC SFV 10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12 |
Away Moorpark HS · turf? |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.86 | 2.85 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 12:00 AM |
Central Coast Surf Soccer 6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8 |
Away TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 74% |
3–1 | 2.34 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 AM |
Dynamo 9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–0 | 2.81 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 14 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
4–0 | 2.86 | 2.82 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 21 12:00 AM |
Unico Futbol Club 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18 |
Away TBD |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–1 | 1.68 | 2.75 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 12:00 AM |
Central Coast United Soccer Club 5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 2.74 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 12:00 AM |
Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
7–0 | 2.99 | 2.75 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 11 12:00 AM |
ALBION SC SCV 7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 2.73 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 12:00 AM |
TFA-SGV 4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3 |
Away TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
3–1 | 2.46 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 25 12:00 AM |
FC Man United 8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 2.72 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 12:00 AM |
Valley United Soccer Club 3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10 |
Home TBD |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.34 | 2.70 | Bank it |
| Tue May 25 12:00 AM |
Unico Futbol Club 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18 |
Home River Ridge Playfields |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.97 | 2.67 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Oxnard United Soccer Club | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 4 | +32 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.65 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sun Oct 25 vs TFA-SGV · Sun Nov 1 at FC Man United See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Unico Futbol Club | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 15 | 2.50 | LWWWW | +0.07 | -0.21 | 99% | 2.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sat Oct 31 at Oaks FC 2 · Sun Nov 1 at Valley United Soccer Club See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Valley United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 15 | 2.14 | DWWWW | -0.16 | -0.02 | 71% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sun Nov 1 vs Unico Futbol Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | TFA-SGV | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 15 | 1.88 | LWWWL | -0.17 | +0.07 | 14% | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs Central Cal Aztecs 2 · Sun Nov 8 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Central Coast United Soccer Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLLW | +0.74 | -0.39 | 64% | 4.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Valley United Soccer Club · Sat Oct 31 at Dynamo · Sun Nov 8 vs Oaks FC 2 See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Central Coast Surf Soccer | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | WLLWW | -0.05 | -0.07 | 33% | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dynamo · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Man United · Sun Nov 1 at LA Surf SC SFV See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | ALBION SC SCV | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 12 | 1.50 | WLLLL | +0.23 | -0.11 | 18% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Man United · Sat Oct 31 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) · Sun Nov 1 at Dynamo See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | FC Man United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 10 | 1.43 | WDWLW | -0.47 | +0.20 | 1% | 8.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC SCV · Sat Oct 31 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sun Nov 1 vs Oxnard United Soccer Club See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Dynamo | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWW | +0.13 | -0.02 | 0% | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Central Coast Surf Soccer · Sat Oct 31 vs Central Coast United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC SCV See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | LA Surf SC SFV | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 6 | 0.75 | LLLLL | -0.34 | +0.40 | 0% | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Oxnard United Soccer Club · Sun Oct 25 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) · Sun Nov 1 vs Central Coast Surf Soccer See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Oaks FC 2 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 | 39 | -25 | 6 | 0.75 | LWWLL | -0.10 | +0.35 | 0% | 11.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Unico Futbol Club · Sun Nov 1 vs ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) · Sun Nov 8 at Central Coast United Soccer Club See all 16 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 | 0.67 | WLLLL | +0.40 | -0.01 | 0% | 10.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs LA Surf SC SFV · Sat Oct 31 at ALBION SC SCV · Sun Nov 1 at Oaks FC 2 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Central Cal Aztecs 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 37 | -33 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | -0.00 | +0.42 | 0% | 13.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Unico Futbol Club · Sat Oct 31 vs Valley United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at TFA-SGV See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.