ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)

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Lancaster National Soccer Center, 34 ↗

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.9 for, 2.4 against · 1.63 expected points)

Common opponents: Valley United Soccer Club — we 2–2; they 1–5. Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 4–1; they 5–2. Dynamo — we 0–3; they 2–3. TFA-SGV — we 0–2; they 0–2.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  LA Surf SC SFV concede 4.0/game; worst result 2–8 vs ALBION SC SCV.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at Dynamo, 0–2 at TFA-SGV.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 49% / draw 18% / loss 34%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• Confidence is low on their side
  LA Surf SC SFV have lost 5 straight (form: LLLLL).

  Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

• What a win does
  Oaks FC 2 sit 11th on 0.75 PPG; we are on 0.67.

  A point moves us above Oaks FC 2 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf SC SFV game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) – LA Surf SC SFV) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd
4. 4th
5. 5th
6. 6th <1%
7. 7th <1%
8. 8th 5%
9. 9th 18%
10. 10th 48%
11. 11th 22%
12. 12th 6%
13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).