TableChase Clubs

LA Surf SC SFV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · LA Surf SC SFV (all teams)

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10th
2-0-6 record · 8 played
0.75 points per game
-12 goal diff · 20–32
LLLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.8
-0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 0.75 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–6 (expected goals 1.1 for, 6.6 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf SC SFVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position10th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-67-0-0
Points per game0.753.00
Goals for / game2.55.1
Goals against / game4.00.6
Clean sheets03
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L L L LW W W W W
Biggest win8–3 at Oaks FC 211–1 at Oaks FC 2
Worst loss2–8 vs ALBION SC SCV—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.30+2.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.34-0.65

Common opponents: Central Cal Aztecs 2 — we 5–2; they 4–0. ALBION SC SCV — we 2–8; they 3–0. Oaks FC 2 — we 8–3; they 11–1. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–6; they 3–1. Dynamo — we 2–3; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Oxnard United Soccer Club score 5.1/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Oxnard United Soccer Club concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs TFA-SGV.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Oxnard United Soccer Club have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf SC SFV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.67 PPG		 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.78 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 10th— holds
Loss
0.67 PPG		 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–6 loss we fall to at least 12th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
10.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 25%
  11. 11th 55%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3.00 (+2.25) 1st (2.67) 66 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 59 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Unico Futbol Club 2.50 (+1.75) 2nd (2.32) 54 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 Valley United Soccer Club 2.14 (+1.39) 3rd (1.93) 46 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 1.88 (+1.13) 7th (1.62) 40 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 1.71 (+0.96) 4th (1.89) 36 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 1.67 (+0.92) 5th (1.74) 35 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
7 ALBION SC SCV 1.50 (+0.75) 6th (1.65) 30 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
8 FC Man United 1.43 (+0.68) 8th (1.32) 29 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 Dynamo 1.29 (+0.54) 9th (1.21) 25 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

32 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link LA Surf SC SFV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
29 favour them
-6.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–2 0–4 2–3 0–3 8–3 1–11 1–6 1–3 2–8 0–3 1–3 6–0 1–3 0–2 5–1 1–5 3–0 1–6 1–5 3–0 4–1 LA Surf SC SFV 10th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th Dynamo 9th Oaks FC 2 11th Central Coast Unite… 5th ALBION SC SCV 7th FC Man United 8th TFA-SGV 4th Valley United Socce… 3rd ALBION SC Antelope … 12th Oxnard United Socce… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.40 · 2nd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.05 0.67 Upside
Sun Oct 25
12:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.19 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:10 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 2–4 0.62 0.72 Upside
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.14 0.67 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:15 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
Calabasas HS · turf?		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.60 0.82 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
08:30 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Home
Moorpark HS · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 0.76 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 2–4 0.45 0.74 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 4–2 2.12 0.83 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.78 0.83 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.34 0.80 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.55 0.79 Upside
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 2–3 0.95 0.80 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.54 0.83 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 0.82 Upside
Sun Apr 25
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 2–4 0.39 0.80 Upside
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–4 0.24 0.78 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7700 364+32 213.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.06 100% 1.1
2 Unico Futbol Club 6501 235+18 152.50 LWWWW +0.07 -0.21 99% 2.1
3 Valley United Soccer Club 7430 199+10 152.14 DWWWW -0.16 -0.02 70% 4.0
4 TFA-SGV 8503 1916+3 151.88 LWWWL -0.17 +0.07 13% 6.2
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7403 2113+8 121.71 WWLLW +0.74 -0.39 64% 4.2
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2113+8 101.67 WLLWW -0.05 -0.07 36% 5.2
7 ALBION SC SCV 8404 2619+7 121.50 WLLLL +0.23 -0.11 17% 5.9
8 FC Man United 7313 1617-1 101.43 WDWLW -0.47 +0.20 1% 8.1
9 Dynamo 7304 1319-6 91.29 LLWWW +0.13 -0.02 1% 8.7
10 LA Surf SC SFV 8206 2032-12 60.75 LLLLL -0.34 +0.40 0% 10.8
11 Oaks FC 2 8206 1439-25 60.75 LWWLL -0.10 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 817-9 40.67 WLLLL +0.40 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 437-33 00.00 LLLLL -0.00 +0.42 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.