TableChase Clubs

TFA-SGV

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · TFA SGV (all teams)

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4th
5-0-3 record · 8 played
1.88 points per game
+3 goal diff · 19–16
LWWWLlast 5
13% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.2
-0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 11:00 AM

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TFA-SGV
4th · 1.88 PPG
at
Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 3.00 PPG

River Ridge Playfields, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.1 for, 3.8 against · 0.27 expected points)

Season so farTFA-SGVOxnard United Soccer Club
Position4th1st
Record (W-D-L)5-0-37-0-0
Points per game1.883.00
Goals for / game2.45.1
Goals against / game2.00.6
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L W W W LW W W W W
Biggest win5–1 at Dynamo11–1 at Oaks FC 2
Worst loss1–5 at Central Coast United Soccer Club—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.24+2.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.17-0.65

Common opponents: Dynamo — we 5–1; they 3–0. Central Coast United Soccer Club — we 1–5; they 3–1. Oaks FC 2 — we 0–3; they 11–1. ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) — we 2–0; they 6–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Oxnard United Soccer Club score 5.1/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Oxnard United Soccer Club concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Oaks FC 2.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 6%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Oxnard United Soccer Club have won 7 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 11:00 AM at River Ridge Playfields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Oxnard United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TFA-SGV – Oxnard United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.67 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.78 PPG		 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.67 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
13% top 4
87% below the top 4
6.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 32%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.12) 1st (2.67) 57 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Unico Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.62) 2nd (2.32) 45 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
3 Valley United Soccer Club 2.14 (+0.26) 3rd (1.93) 37 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

30 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link TFA-SGV to Oxnard United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
22 favour them
-3.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 0–3 2–0 1–6 1–5 1–3 0–3 1–11 2–3 3–0 0–3 4–1 0–4 2–0 5–2 3–2 4–1 2–0 4–2 2–3 3–1 TFA-SGV 4th Dynamo 9th ALBION SC Antelope … 12th Central Coast Unite… 5th Oaks FC 2 11th Valley United Socce… 3rd LA Surf SC SFV 10th Unico Futbol Club 2nd ALBION SC SCV 7th Central Cal Aztecs 2 13th Oxnard United Socce… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
11:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Away
River Ridge Playfields		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–3 0.27 1.70 Upside
Sun Nov 1
12:45 PM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
Gladstone Middle School · turf		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.80 1.81 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
12:45 PM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.31 1.76 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:45 AM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Home
Azusa High School · turf		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 2–1 1.92 1.77 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:00 PM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Away
Santa Barbara High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.51 1.68 Upside
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 4-0-3 · GD +8		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.20 1.64 Upside
Sun Mar 14
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Home
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.57 1.71 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.41 1.69 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.45 1.67 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–1 1.83 1.68 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
12:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
31%		 1–2 1.14 1.65 Upside
Sun Apr 18
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Home
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.42 1.59 Upside
Sat Apr 24
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Home
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 1.62 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–1 2.67 1.67 Bank it
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 2–2 1.00 1.64 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Away
Turf - West Ranch High School · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–2 1.09 1.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7700 364+32 213.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.06 100% 1.1
2 Unico Futbol Club 6501 235+18 152.50 LWWWW +0.07 -0.21 99% 2.1
3 Valley United Soccer Club 7430 199+10 152.14 DWWWW -0.16 -0.02 70% 4.0
4 TFA-SGV 8503 1916+3 151.88 LWWWL -0.17 +0.07 13% 6.2
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7403 2113+8 121.71 WWLLW +0.74 -0.39 64% 4.2
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2113+8 101.67 WLLWW -0.05 -0.07 36% 5.2
7 ALBION SC SCV 8404 2619+7 121.50 WLLLL +0.23 -0.11 17% 5.9
8 FC Man United 7313 1617-1 101.43 WDWLW -0.47 +0.20 1% 8.1
9 Dynamo 7304 1319-6 91.29 LLWWW +0.13 -0.02 1% 8.7
10 LA Surf SC SFV 8206 2032-12 60.75 LLLLL -0.34 +0.40 0% 10.8
11 Oaks FC 2 8206 1439-25 60.75 LWWLL -0.10 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 817-9 40.67 WLLLL +0.40 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 437-33 00.00 LLLLL -0.00 +0.42 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.