TableChase Clubs

Central Coast United Soccer Club

Elite Academy League 2 · LA North U16 · 13 teams · Central Coast United Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th
4-0-3 record · 7 played
1.71 points per game
+8 goal diff · 21–13
WWLLWlast 5
65% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.2
+0.74 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 04:00 PM

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Central Coast United Soccer Club
5th · 1.71 PPG
at
Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 2.14 PPG

Valley United Soccer Complex, Olivar ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.2 against · 1.18 expected points)

Season so farCentral Coast United Soccer ClubValley United Soccer Club
Position5th3rd
Record (W-D-L)4-0-34-3-0
Points per game1.712.14
Goals for / game3.02.7
Goals against / game1.91.3
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)W L L W WW W W W D
Biggest win6–1 vs LA Surf SC SFV5–1 at LA Surf SC SFV
Worst loss2–5 at ALBION SC SCV—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.97+0.98
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.74-0.16

Common opponents: ALBION SC SCV — we 2–5; they 3–0. FC Man United — we 4–0; they 0–0. TFA-SGV — we 5–1; they 3–2. Central Coast Surf Soccer — we 3–1; they 2–2. LA Surf SC SFV — we 6–1; they 5–1.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at Unico Futbol Club.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 33%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Valley United Soccer Club have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Valley United Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valley United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Central Coast United Soccer Club – Valley United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3
Win
1.88 PPG		 3rd▲ up 2 3rd▲ up 2 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.63 PPG		 6th▼ down 1 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
65% top 4
35% below the top 4
4.2 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd 4%
  3. 3rd 32%
  4. 4th 29%
  5. 5th 19%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 3.00 (+1.29) 1st (2.67) 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Unico Futbol Club 2.50 (+0.79) 2nd (2.32) 48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 Valley United Soccer Club 2.14 (+0.43) 3rd (1.93) 40 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 TFA-SGV 1.88 (+0.17) 7th (1.62) 34 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

27 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Central Coast United Soccer Club to Valley United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us
3 even
8 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–1 1–5 3–1 2–2 5–1 2–3 4–0 0–0 2–5 0–3 0–2 3–1 2–2 5–0 3–2 1–3 3–0 2–4 4–1 2–4 8–2 Central Coast Unite… 5th LA Surf SC SFV 10th Central Coast Surf … 6th TFA-SGV 4th FC Man United 8th ALBION SC SCV 7th Unico Futbol Club 2nd Oxnard United Socce… 1st ALBION SC Antelope … 12th Dynamo 9th Valley United Socce… 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 29 Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.39 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
04:00 PM		 Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10		 Away
Valley United Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–2 1.18 1.65 Upside
Sat Oct 31
04:30 PM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Away
Van Nuys / Sherman Oaks Rec Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.98 1.69 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.78 1.79 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM		 ALBION SC SCV
7th · 4-0-4 · GD +7		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 2–2 1.80 1.79 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:40 PM		 FC Man United
8th · 3-1-3 · GD -1		 Away
Citrus College · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
55%		 2–1 1.83 1.80 Swing game
Sun Mar 7
12:00 AM		 TFA-SGV
4th · 5-0-3 · GD +3		 Away
TBD		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 2–2 1.61 1.78 Swing game
Sat Mar 13
10:00 AM		 Central Coast Surf Soccer
6th · 3-1-2 · GD +8		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.70 1.78 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
10:00 AM		 Unico Futbol Club
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.01 1.73 Upside
Sat Mar 20
12:30 PM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center		 ●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.17 1.75 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
10:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 5–0 2.91 1.82 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 AM		 Oxnard United Soccer Club
1st · 7-0-0 · GD +32		 Away
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 1.74 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 AM		 LA Surf SC SFV
10th · 2-0-6 · GD -12		 Away
TBD		 ●●○○○ Lean win
74%		 4–2 2.33 1.77 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
10:00 AM		 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2)
12th · 1-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.41 1.81 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
10:00 AM		 Dynamo
9th · 3-0-4 · GD -6		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.26 1.83 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM		 Valley United Soccer Club
3rd · 4-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
CMT Ranch		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
42%		 2–1 1.48 1.81 Swing game
Sun May 2
12:00 AM		 Oaks FC 2
11th · 2-0-6 · GD -25		 Away
TBD		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.62 1.85 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM		 Central Cal Aztecs 2
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -33		 Away
Kern County Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.83 1.89 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Oxnard United Soccer Club 7700 364+32 213.00 WWWWW -0.65 -0.06 100% 1.1
2 Unico Futbol Club 6501 235+18 152.50 LWWWW +0.07 -0.21 99% 2.1
3 Valley United Soccer Club 7430 199+10 152.14 DWWWW -0.16 -0.02 71% 4.0
4 TFA-SGV 8503 1916+3 151.88 LWWWL -0.17 +0.07 14% 6.2
5 Central Coast United Soccer Club 7403 2113+8 121.71 WWLLW +0.74 -0.39 65% 4.2
6 Central Coast Surf Soccer 6312 2113+8 101.67 WLLWW -0.05 -0.07 33% 5.3
7 ALBION SC SCV 8404 2619+7 121.50 WLLLL +0.23 -0.11 18% 5.9
8 FC Man United 7313 1617-1 101.43 WDWLW -0.47 +0.20 1% 8.1
9 Dynamo 7304 1319-6 91.29 LLWWW +0.13 -0.02 0% 8.7
10 LA Surf SC SFV 8206 2032-12 60.75 LLLLL -0.34 +0.40 0% 10.8
11 Oaks FC 2 8206 1439-25 60.75 LWWLL -0.10 +0.35 0% 11.7
12 ALBION SC Antelope Valley (2) 6114 817-9 40.67 WLLLL +0.40 -0.01 0% 10.1
13 Central Cal Aztecs 2 7007 437-33 00.00 LLLLL -0.00 +0.42 0% 13.0

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.