TableChase Clubs

Sting Brave NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · Sting Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+30 goal diff · 30–0
WWWWlast 4
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6
-2.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:10 PM

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Sting Brave NTX
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 2.25 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.6 for, 1.7 against · 2.30 expected points)

Season so farSting Brave NTXSOLAR WHITE NTX
Position1st6th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-03-0-1
Points per game3.002.25
Goals for / game7.54.5
Goals against / game0.01.3
Clean sheets41
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WW L W W
Biggest win12–0 vs DKSC NTX9–0 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX
Worst loss—1–3 vs Nido Dallas NTX
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.50+1.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.33-2.10

Common opponents: SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 8–0; they 2–1. FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 4–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SOLAR WHITE NTX score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 05:10 PM at Dallas Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SOLAR WHITE NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sting Brave NTX – SOLAR WHITE NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
1st— holds 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.40 PPG
3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

63% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.6 average finish
  1. 1st 63%
  2. 2nd 21%
  3. 3rd 12%
  4. 4th 3%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Sting Brave NTX to SOLAR WHITE NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 0–9 8–0 1–2 Sting Brave NTX 1st FC Dallas Youth Whi… 19th SOLAR BLUE NTX 17th SOLAR WHITE NTX 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.45 · 3rd hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:10 PM
SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +13
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
3–1 2.30 2.86 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:40 AM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +27
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
3–2 1.91 2.70 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
11:40 AM
Fever United FC NTX
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–1 2.61 2.69 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans Red NTX
18th · 0-1-4 · GD -19
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 2.73 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
09:50 AM
DKSC WHITE NTX
9th · 2-2-1 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–0 2.85 2.74 Bank it
Sat Feb 20
09:50 AM
Kernow Storm FC NTX
12th · 2-1-2 · GD +1
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.82 2.75 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
09:50 AM
SOLAR NTX
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +18
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 2.64 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
03:20 PM
Sting Black NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.58 2.64 Bank it
Thu Mar 25
06:30 PM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
Railroad Park
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
4–1 2.68 2.64 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:40 AM
SOLAR RED NTX
14th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.80 2.65 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:40 AM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
4–1 2.74 2.66 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 93% 2.6
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 93% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 63% 4.1
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 40% 4.7
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 9% 6.7
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 0% 9.7
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.5
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.3
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 10.0
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 10.0
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.2
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 10.9
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.2
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.6
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.2
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 16.0
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.2
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.