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SOLAR WHITE NTX

ECNL Regional League Girls · North Texas GU14 · 20 teams · Solar SC (all teams)

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6th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+13 goal diff · 18–5
WWLWlast 4
10% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.7
-2.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 05:10 PM

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SOLAR WHITE NTX
6th · 2.25 PPG
vs
Sting Brave NTX
1st · 3.00 PPG

Dallas Soccer Park, Field 9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.7 for, 3.6 against · 0.57 expected points)

Season so farSOLAR WHITE NTXSting Brave NTX
Position6th1st
Record (W-D-L)3-0-14-0-0
Points per game2.253.00
Goals for / game4.57.5
Goals against / game1.30.0
Clean sheets14
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L W WW W W W
Biggest win9–0 at FC Dallas Youth White NTX12–0 vs DKSC NTX
Worst loss1–3 vs Nido Dallas NTX—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.31+3.50
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-2.10-2.33

Common opponents: FC Dallas Youth White NTX — we 9–0; they 4–0. SOLAR BLUE NTX — we 2–1; they 8–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sting Brave NTX score 7.5/game — well above the league's 2.4.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Sting Brave NTX concede only 0.0/game with 4 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Sting Brave NTX have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    BVBIA DFW NTX sit 5th on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.25.

    A win moves us above BVBIA DFW NTX on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting Brave NTX game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SOLAR WHITE NTX – Sting Brave NTX) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.80 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2
Win
2.40 PPG
5th▲ up 1 6th— holds 6th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 6th— holds
Loss
1.80 PPG
6th— holds 6th— holds 8th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
10% top 4
90% below the top 4
6.7 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 28%
  7. 7th 17%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 5%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th
  18. 18th
  19. 19th
  20. 20th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.80 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sting Brave NTX 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.66) 36 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 2.60 (+0.35) 3rd (2.44) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
3 SOLAR NTX 2.60 (+0.35) 2nd (2.47) 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
4 Sting Royal NTX 2.40 (+0.15) 4th (2.21) Win next game
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 2.40 (+0.15) 5th (2.13) Win next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link SOLAR WHITE NTX to Sting Brave NTX through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 favour them
-1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
9–0 0–4 2–1 0–8 SOLAR WHITE NTX 6th FC Dallas Youth Whi… 19th SOLAR BLUE NTX 17th Sting Brave NTX 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

1st 10th 20th Sep 12 Sep 20 Sep 26 Oct 10 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.59 · 2nd hardest of 20

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
05:10 PM
Sting Brave NTX
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +30
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.57 1.91 Upside
Sat Oct 31
08:00 AM
Sting Black NTX
11th · 2-1-2 · GD +4
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.67 1.87 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
07:00 PM
Dallas Cosmos SC NTX
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +4
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.00 1.89 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:30 PM
SOLAR RED NTX
14th · 1-1-2 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.88 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
01:30 PM
BVBIA DFW NTX
5th · 4-0-1 · GD +7
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–1 1.54 1.84 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
01:30 PM
Dallas Texans NTX
7th · 2-1-1 · GD +3
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.75 1.83 Swing game
Sun Feb 21
01:30 PM
FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX
2nd · 4-1-0 · GD +27
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●● Very tough
22%
2–3 0.81 1.74 Upside
Sat Feb 27
01:30 PM
Sting Royal NTX
4th · 4-0-1 · GD +16
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.33 1.71 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:50 AM
NTX Celtic FC NTX
13th · 2-1-2 · GD -2
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.93 1.72 Swing game
Sat Apr 3
05:10 PM
Fever United FC NTX
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Dallas Soccer Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.84 1.73 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
05:10 PM
DKSC NTX
20th · 0-0-5 · GD -36
Home
Dallas Soccer Park
●○○○○ Favorable
99%
7–0 2.98 1.82 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sting Brave NTX 4400 300+30 123.00 WWWW -2.33 +0.45 99% 1.6
2 FC Dallas Youth Blue NTX 5410 314+27 132.60 WWDWW -0.73 +0.04 93% 2.6
3 SOLAR NTX 5410 202+18 132.60 DWWWW -0.12 -0.18 95% 2.6
4 Sting Royal NTX 5401 237+16 122.40 LWWWW -0.38 -0.18 64% 4.1
5 BVBIA DFW NTX 5401 114+7 122.40 WWWWL +0.25 -0.40 38% 4.8
6 SOLAR WHITE NTX 4301 185+13 92.25 WWLW -2.10 +0.59 10% 6.7
7 Dallas Texans NTX 4211 63+3 71.75 WLWD -1.74 +0.23 0% 9.8
8 Dallas Cosmos SC NTX 5221 1410+4 81.60 DDWWL -0.26 +0.09 1% 8.5
9 DKSC WHITE NTX 5221 1111+0 81.60 DDWLW -1.33 +0.30 0% 11.3
10 Fever United FC NTX 4202 66+0 61.50 LWWL +0.32 -0.07 0% 10.0
11 Sting Black NTX 5212 1511+4 71.40 WDLWL -0.05 +0.40 0% 10.0
12 Kernow Storm FC NTX 5212 109+1 71.40 LWLDW -1.42 +0.71 0% 13.2
13 NTX Celtic FC NTX 5212 911-2 71.40 WLLDW +0.39 +0.13 0% 10.9
14 SOLAR RED NTX 4112 1010+0 41.00 WLLD +0.70 +0.00 0% 10.2
15 Nido Dallas NTX 5104 422-18 30.60 LLWLL +0.76 -0.34 0% 16.6
16 FC Dallas Youth Red NTX 5023 414-10 20.40 LLDDL +1.77 -0.50 0% 15.2
17 SOLAR BLUE NTX 4013 315-12 10.25 LDLL +1.51 -0.32 0% 15.9
18 Dallas Texans Red NTX 5014 322-19 10.20 DLLLL +0.86 +0.06 0% 18.1
19 FC Dallas Youth White NTX 5014 430-26 10.20 LLLDL +1.38 -0.33 0% 18.1
20 DKSC NTX 5005 036-36 00.00 LLLLL +1.17 -0.11 0% 19.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.35 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.